Putin's focus on Ukrainian state collapse over Kursk defence

Experts from the Associated Press analyze that Russia's priority is the collapse of the Ukrainian state, not the recapture of territories in the Kursk region. This is why Vladimir Putin does not want to shift larger forces to this section.

For three weeks, Russia has been struggling with a Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. However, Vladimir Putin does not see this as a priority and avoids transferring troops from the Donbas, reports the Associated Press, citing experts' opinions.

In the Kursk region, the Russians lack sufficient units to counter the Ukrainian offensive. Moreover, Russia is not taking decisive action to end the first occupation of its territories since World War II.

Nigel Gould-Davies from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) assesses that the Kremlin avoids transferring units to the Kursk region. "In marshaling forces to meet Ukraine's incursion, Russia is doing all it can to avoid drawing units from its own offensive in the Donbas. Russia currently judges that it can contain the threat on its own soil without compromising its most important goal in Ukraine."

In an interview with AP, Tatiana Stanova from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center claims, "Putin’s focus is on the collapse of the Ukrainian state, which he believes will automatically render any territorial control irrelevant."

Nico Lange from the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) points out that Russia does not take vigorous actions against the offensive in the Kursk region, focusing instead on capturing Pokrovsk. Capturing the fortified Pokrovsk could threaten the less protected areas of the Donetsk region.

Analysts observing the movements of Russian forces report that Moscow is forced to chaotically deploy units from across the country, including support units and irregular formations. Removing around 10,000 Ukrainians from the Kursk region would require shifting tens of thousands of soldiers, limiting Russia to attacking Ukrainian backlines and blocking roads.

Ukraine seizing part of Russian territory has humiliated the Kremlin and changed the dynamics on the front. Defending such a position involves significant risk, extends the front line, and creates logistical problems as the extended supply routes become easier targets for the enemy.