Rethinking American military strategy in the face of new threats
For more than three years, the war in Ukraine has led analysts to reassess Russia's true military potential. Some experts believe that for a long time, we lived under the illusion of the Russian army's power and invincibility, which proved to be a myth. In this context, an analysis by Mark Gunzinger, a former colonel of the United States Air Force, who some years ago assessed the capabilities of the USA and its allies in a potential conflict with Russia and China, becomes intriguing. His opinion, as we recall, was not particularly optimistic at that time.
Mark Gunzinger, a retired colonel of the United States Air Force, presented an analysis in his 2021 article published on the portal Defence News regarding the potential chances of the USA in a conflict with Russia and China. His conclusions were alarming then, emphasising the need for changes in American defence strategy. The question arises whether the United States has modified its approach since then and is moving towards modernising its armed forces, as Gunzinger suggested.
Technology matters
It is important to remember that Gunzinger criticised the strategy of the US Department of Defense, which advocated reducing army size while expecting new technologies to increase its effectiveness. Gunzinger believed that such a policy does not guarantee sufficient capabilities to defend the country and prevent nuclear attacks.
The former military officer noted that to effectively counter potential aggression from China on Taiwan or Russia on the Baltic countries, the United States must have forces capable of quick offence. According to him, only air forces, such as bombers and fifth-generation fighters, can react swiftly enough.
Gunzinger pointed out that since the Cold War, as much as 66% of the United States Air Force's bombers have been withdrawn from service, and the size of fighter forces is significantly smaller than in 1991. In his analysis, the retired officer indicated that if the United States fails to prevent China from invading Taiwan, they may lose their dominant military position in the Western Pacific.
New challenges, old problems
Similarly, a successful invasion of the Baltic states by Russia could weaken NATO, which according to the retired American colonel, is one of Vladimir Putin's long-term goals. Gunzinger suggested that the United States should focus on developing long-range bombers and fifth-generation fighters and increasing the number of precision missiles.
It is pertinent to note that Gunzinger's opinion on the importance of bombers in modern military conflicts remained unchanged even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the end of 2023, he referred to a report indicating that the United States will be able to acquire only about 10 modern B-21 bombers annually starting from the 2030s. Gunzinger believed that such a small number of advanced B-21 bombers would likely not significantly impact offensive or defensive operations against China or any other major US adversary.
The retired military officer stated in 2023 that American bomber and fighter aviation will reach a new low this decade before increasing its size. He also noted that at the same time, the threat of aggression on Taiwan or the South China Sea is peaking. Gunzinger commented that he believes it doesn't make sense from the perspective of deterrence, risk management, or warfare.
Gunzinger believed that it is crucial to revise planning assumptions and increase combat capabilities to quickly suppress potential invasions. Only such actions can secure the United States from losing its military position.
Despite existing problems, expert analyses regarding a potential direct clash between NATO and Russia consistently emphasise that the Alliance surpasses Putin's army in many respects. The graphic below illustrates this well, although it does not include resources that Sweden has contributed to NATO.
