Rising tensions: russian shadow fleet threats in the Baltic
Four Russian tankers were damaged at sea within just a week. "If such an incident occurred in the Baltic, we would be facing a disaster," notes Dr Damian Szacawa. Poland's initiative is gaining broader support. The Baltic is at risk," adds the expert.
On 15 December, in the Kerch Strait, two Russian tankers, Wolgoneft-212 and Wolgoneft-239, sank after their hulls split in half. The oil spill contaminated the coast of the Krasnodar region in Russia. By the next day, on the night from Monday to Tuesday, another tanker, Volgoneft 109, malfunctioned in the Sea of Azov. On Tuesday evening, the Russian tanker Mercury sent SOS signals from near the Kuril Islands.
The black streak continues. "These are further proofs of the threat posed by old, worn-out, and often non-compliant tankers used by Russia to transport oil," explains Dr Damian Szacawa, an assistant professor at the Institute of International Relations at UMCS and a senior analyst at the Baltic Team of the Institute of Central Europe in Lublin. "If such an incident occurred in the Baltic, we would be facing a disaster with international ramifications," he emphasises.
The problem concerns tankers flying the Russian flag and the so-called "shadow fleet"—ships from third countries used to transport Russian oil. Incidents and our waters are increasing.
Traffic on the Baltic
As the expert points out, Russia is doing everything to circumvent the sanctions imposed on it. It uses ships from cheap shipowners registered in Bermuda, Hong Kong, Liberia, the Marshall Islands, and even under Greek, Cypriot, or Maltese flags.
- As shown by data from the Kyiv School of Economics, the "shadow fleet" is currently transporting more oil than ever. In June 2024, Russia transported approximately 4.1 million barrels daily using this fleet. That's twice as much as in June 2023. The mere increase in traffic raises the risk of malfunction. If we add to this the fact that Moscow doesn't have open access to reliable shipowners and must rely on shadow vessels, we can assume that similar incidents will happen much more frequently," explains Dr Szacawa.
Additionally, 80% of Russian raw materials and petroleum products pass through waters belonging to EU and G7 countries. And as much as 60% of the maritime export of Russian crude oil is transported through the Baltic Sea. This is illustrated by ship tracking data provided by the company Kpler, shared by the MarineTraffic portal.
A soft underbelly
Experts and ecologists emphasise how sensitive an area the Baltic Sea is.
"The Baltic Sea is treated uniquely, as for years, measures were applied to protect this area (e.g., in the context of sulphur content in fuels used for ship movement—bunker fuel). An important element of these threats is also the crew, which often consists of inexperienced workers from Asia and the Pacific," reminds Michał Paszkowski from IES.
Any leak can have catastrophic consequences with a relatively shallow basin, high maritime traffic, poor water exchange, and a dilapidated "shadow fleet" often operating without proper insurance.
The Baltic is a protected sea with special monitoring status. Ships entering it should meet strict regulations, among them emission standards and very specific technical conditions, like double hulls, which would prevent leaks in the event of a collision and increase safety," pointed out Dr Szacawa.
As he notes, Russian "shadow fleet" ships are like floating bombs. However, they pose not only an ecological threat. Russia, with China's involvement, uses them for espionage tasks and possibly for sabotage.
There are many doubts surrounding the destruction of the fibre-optic cable between Sweden and Estonia in 2023, the previous leak from the Balticconnector pipeline, and the recent damage to the telecom connection linking Lithuania with Sweden and Finland with Germany in the Kattegat Strait by the China-related ship Yi Peng 3 with a Russian crew.
The Baltic is a crucial point. It's the maritime route we use to secure oil, fuel, and gas supplies for the country. The oil and LNG terminals on the Baltic are our resource and energy windows to the world. Power lines and a pipeline connecting us with Norway run along the bottom of the sea. Each of these facilities could be a target for sabotage. The sensitive infrastructure is increasing, from offshore wind farms to nuclear power plants built on Poland's coast.
The perception of Europe regarding events in the Baltic is changing. If, during last year's incident, the responsible container ship NewNew Polar Bear sailed away freely, then regarding Yi Peng 3, concrete action was taken. The ship has been detained and is under inspection by Danish and German ships," emphasises Dr Szacawa.
Patrols on the Baltic!
The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO has turned the Baltic into an internal sea of NATO. Although the Western coalition already had strategic control over this basin, the current balance of power gives it a significant advantage.
In its 14th sanctions package, the EU took steps that affected the "shadow fleet." It created tools to control ships passing through its territory. Strict cooperation and information exchange about the Russian fleet was supposed to help coordinate responses to the threats posed by these ships and entities, facilitating shadow fleet operations. Previously, the EU also attacked ships' insurance and certification.
As Paszkowski adds, ships that are 29 years old are difficult to insure, so various workarounds are applied here. "Most of these ships sail under the flags of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, which shows a certain coordination of actions and cooperation between these countries," he assesses.
- Last week, we adopted the 15th package of sanctions, which includes measures against the Russian shadow fleet and channels bypassing sanctions. We are preparing the 16th package of sanctions," said EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during a debate in the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
Dr Szacawa, however, points to the initiatives of the Baltic states themselves, particularly Poland's well-received proposal, presented by Prime Minister Donald Tusk during the last summit of the Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8 includes Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) in Harpsund, Sweden.
Tusk would like joint patrols to sail the Baltic in the framework of "Navy Policing," a format similar to what NATO fighters perform in Baltic Air Policing. Authorities from Lithuania and Estonia, among others, supported the concept. The head of the government also proposed that Poland assist Denmark regarding the ban on entry to the Baltic Sea and sign a new strategic partnership agreement with Sweden.
The 15th sanctions package entails listing about 52 ships on the blacklist. This is a relatively small number, considering that the "shadow fleet" is estimated at about 1,400-1,500 ships. According to assumptions, inspections will be conducted on suspicious ships to verify whether they possess the correct documentation and insurance. If not, further units will be added to the list of ships banned from re-entering the Baltic," reminds Dr Szacawa.
As the expert points out, the EU has tools and legal grounds resulting from interpreting maritime regulations, conventions, and international agreements to pre-emptively eliminate ships posing a threat. However, Brussels must create specific guidelines on how to enforce political declarations. "Denmark and Sweden's role will be important here, as they control the straits through which ships exit the Baltic Sea.
Tankers carrying Russian oil must pass through one of the four Danish straits: the Great Belt, Little Belt, Sound, and Fehmarn Belt. This is where suspicious units could be controlled.
