Rising threat: Why ballistic missiles plague Ukrainian defences
Russian forces continue missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities. Although the Ukrainians are successfully destroying drones and cruise missiles, ballistic missiles still pose a serious threat and are rarely intercepted. We explain why this is the case.
The Russians are continuously attacking Ukrainian cities. While the Ukrainians manage well with drones and cruise missiles, this is not the case with Iskander-M ballistic missiles. On 6 April 2025, out of six launched by the Russians, the Ukrainians shot down only one.
Conversely, in the case of cruise missiles, namely the Ch-101 and Kalibr, they managed to shoot down six out of nine and six out of eight, respectively. For Shahed drones, out of 109, 93 were shot down or effectively disrupted using electronic warfare systems.
Lack of replacement for Soviet-era systems
The Ukrainian air defence forces have already exhausted their missile resources for Russian S-300P systems and S-300W; if any remain, they are rare. Western Patriot and SAMP/T batteries number just six plus two. Additionally, there are older systems like MIM-23 HAWK batteries, but their capabilities are significantly worse than the more modern systems already mentioned.
These types of systems can only counter ballistic missiles within a radius of about 40 kilometres from the launcher. The eight batteries from the West are not enough to rebuild Ukrainian defences before the Russian invasion, and the Ukrainians have to make difficult decisions about what to protect and what to leave exposed to attack.
Elusive Iskander-M missiles — Here's their secret
The Iskander-M ballistic missiles, powered by a solid-fuel engine, initially ascend to space and then descend, reaching speeds exceeding Mach 7 (over 2,000 metres per second), making them very difficult to shoot down.
This has been typical behaviour for ballistic missiles for decades, but in recent times improved guidance based on better INS and GPS systems has reduced the circular error probable (CEP) from hundreds to even a few or several metres.
Only a few anti-aircraft systems worldwide have the capability to destroy such targets. However, it is worth noting that a saturation attack using more ballistic missiles than the payload capacity of an anti-aircraft system can break through any defence. The Russians used Iskanders quite often at the beginning of the war, and the current production rate does not meet the demand. Fortunately, they cannot use them as often as they would like.
In the case of Iskander-M missiles, they can hit targets up to 500 kilometres away while carrying warheads weighing about 500 kilograms. These can be conventional high-explosive warheads, penetrating ones for attacking bunkers, cluster munitions whose bomblets can affect a wide area, or thermonuclear, used exclusively for nuclear deterrence purposes.
