Russian narratives overhype destruction of Western arms

Russian propaganda "destroys" more Western equipment than has been supplied to the Ukrainians. Previously, this applied to Abrams, Leopards, and Krabs. Now, according to Kremlin media, Ukrainian F-16s are supposedly falling out of the sky regularly. Do Russians have an inferiority complex regarding Western weaponry?

Russian propaganda revels in the supposed destruction of every Western tank. Kremlin trolls quickly latch onto narratives in the media about the allegedly poor and overrated American Abrams, German Leopards, Polish Krabs, and unreliable F-16 fighters. They highlight the supposed superiority of their own technology.

While the trolls and tabloid press focus on the perceived weaknesses of Western equipment, claiming it stands no chance against the latest Russian technology, expert commentary often reveals a sense of insecurity about the weapons used by Ukraine and disdain for its soldiers. This becomes the cornerstone of propaganda.

"The Abrams proved challenging not only for the Russian army but also for Ukrainian tank crews, who never adapted to the 'miracle technology'," wrote Viktor Sokirko, a journalist for Argumenty i Fakty.

"Western equipment, which the Ukrainian army once spoke so highly of, has become a foreign presence within the Armed Forces of Ukraine," wrote military expert Borys Dziereliewski. "There have been numerous reports of Ukrainian soldiers abandoning unused Javelins and Stingers, unsure of how to operate 'that thing'," he added.

Propagandists are united on one point - Russian soldiers systematically destroy Western equipment. Their explanations for these losses, however, differ.

Ukraine received 31 Abrams M1A1 SA tanks from the United States. These are not the latest versions but older models. The Leopard tanks, provided by European allies, are also older iterations. Ukrainians received 40 Leopard 2A4s, 21 Leopard 2A6s, and ten Swedish Stridsvagn 122s.

Russian propaganda claims that Ukraine has lost at least 20 Abrams and 50 Leopards. According to Kremlin trolls, all were simply annihilated.

The reality, however, is somewhat different. War losses are categorised into irrecoverable and recoverable. In the latter case, it concerns the time required for the evacuation and repair of vehicles.

In truth, of the 14 Abrams destroyed, damaged, and abandoned, only five were irrecoverably lost. This includes one that was completely burnt and indeed captured and transported to Moscow. Nine Abrams were damaged and abandoned, meaning that after evacuation from the battlefield and subsequent repair, they can be returned to front-line units.

Ukraine lost about 40 Leopards, of which only one-third were irrecoverable. The remaining damaged vehicles were repaired and have already returned to the front.

This does not deter the Kremlin from claiming that the Russian army destroyed significantly more, which is not unusual during wars. This propaganda serves to boost domestic morale. A similar situation occurred during the Battle of Britain, when Allied pilots were credited with about 30% more shootdowns than actually occurred. On 15th September 1940, the actual number was exaggerated by more than 50%.

However, this was a relatively modest overstatement compared to historical instances. During the Battle of Kursk, Soviet forces claimed to have shot down 1500% more aircraft than the Germans actually lost. Current Russian propaganda is not yet that imaginative. The losses among Ukrainian F-16s were exaggerated by only 60%.

The first F-16 was allegedly shot down by the Russians over Bakhmut in May 2023, more than a year before these fighters actually appeared in Ukrainian skies. In December, another was supposedly downed. Shortly thereafter, Kremlin experts claimed that shooting down all transferred aircraft was only a matter of time. Thus far, they have not succeeded, and the only loss occurred without enemy involvement.

For this reason, Russians rely on exaggerated reports of downing fighters. They utilise real photographs of aircraft incidents. In May 2023, a photo from a Thai F-16 accident in 2015, caused by pilot error, was manipulated for this purpose.

Recently, the Russian embassy in South Africa used a photo of a plane destroyed in an accident in California in 2019. Russian propagandists digitally added the Ukrainian coat of arms to the vertical stabiliser. However, this deceit was quickly exposed.

Russian propaganda does touch upon one accurate point – Ukrainian soldiers are inadequately trained, and the actual losses of Western arms have primarily resulted from flawed tactics.

In the first instance, this contributed to Leopard losses during last year's counter-offensive in Zaporizhzhia. In the second, the loss of Abrams occurred after inexperienced crews abandoned them in Donbas. Or rather, crews who previously had experience with Soviet-made tanks, where crew survivability was not a priority.

This likely stems from the experiences of tankers who served in tanks unable to withstand even moderately powerful fire. This led to crews often abandoning equipment out of fear for their lives, even with a single hit. Therefore, it can be surmised that Ukraine might lose a few more Leopards or Abrams similarly.