Russia's tantalum crisis overblown: The defence sector holds firm

The British "The Telegraph" published an analysis predicting a rapid crisis in the Russian defence industry. The cause is said to be shortages of tantalum—a rare and valuable element needed for producing many modern weapon designs.

The opinions presented by the British editorial team were quickly replicated by numerous media outlets, including those in Poland. However, suggestions that the Russian defence sector is—due to tantalum shortages—on the verge of collapse have little to do with the truth, as even Ukrainian media point out.

What is tantalum, and why is access to it important for Moscow (and all other countries producing, among other things, modern weapons)?

Tantalum is a dark, shiny metal, resistant to corrosion and acids, while also conducting electricity and heat well. It can be found in jewellery and some watches, but its key application is in electronics—tantalum is used in capacitor construction. It is also important for the defence sector—rocket nozzles, aircraft engine components, or various shields are made with its participation.

Like many other valuable elements (such as tungsten necessary for defence production), tantalum is unevenly distributed on Earth and in a highly dispersed form. It’s enough to mention that deposits containing 0.1% tantalum are considered rich. Tantalum is mined in Canada, among other places, but Africa, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the Kivu province, is recognised as key to the world's deposits.

According to conservative estimates, more than 40% of known global tantalum resources are located there (in the form of coltan ores rich in this element), but some sources suggest that Kivu holds as much as 70% of recognised deposits.

In January 2025, a report on the limited availability of tantalum and its low reserves in Russia was prepared by the Ukrainian research group Frontelligence Insight. The report went largely unnoticed, but in May, based on it, "The Telegraph" published an article with a thesis about Russia's expected problems related to tantalum shortages.

It is true that the Russian industry—like any other—needs this element. Russian demand is estimated at around 800 kilograms monthly, which with reserves estimated at the beginning of the year at 2,000 kilograms might have created the impression that soon Moscow would lose the ability to produce modern weapons.

The list of equipment containing tantalum elements is—according to the Ukrainian service Defence Express—virtually unlimited.

It includes tanks (like the T-72M3), various radios, Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles, 9M727 Iskander-K rockets, R-77 air-to-air missiles, Kh-59 and Kh-101 air-to-ground missiles, and various drones. Wherever there is electronics, tantalum is likely present.

If "The Telegraph"'s forecast were accurate, currently—nearly five months after the Frontelligence Insight publication—Russia would not be able to produce even aerial cruise missiles. Meanwhile, their production, evidenced by data on Kh-101 deliveries, remains roughly stable.

This is because neither the West nor President Trump controls the global trade of tantalum. With sanctions, they can only hinder its deliveries and extend the logistics chain. An example is Kazakhstan joining the sanctions, halting processed tantalum deliveries to Russia, causing temporary shortages in the country.

Beyond the raw material itself, tantalum-based capacitors were still flowing into Russia in a wide stream in 2024. They are supplied by the American-Japanese company Kyocera AVX, which produces and ships its products from El Salvador, among other locations.

Meanwhile, at the beginning of the year, guerrillas from the Congolese Revolutionary Army (also known as M23), considered defeated for a decade, occupied the world's largest coltan mine in Rubaya in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Analysts believe M23 did not revive spontaneously—someone must have provided weapons and money to the guerrillas, with China pointed out as the country involved in the Congolese coup.