Russia's war struggles: mounting losses and dwindling resources
Although the Russians planned to capture Kyiv within a maximum of 72 hours, they have been engaged in battles in Ukraine for 1,000 days, and the main front line is now far to the east of the Ukrainian capital. The effects of the defenders’ army, supported by the West, are evident almost everywhere. Ukraine has become a graveyard of Russian armoured equipment, drones, and remnants of missiles shot down by anti-aircraft systems.
Discussing Russia as the world's second army is often done with irony, but regarding the number of soldiers and available equipment, it still warrants this title. This is confirmed by the Global Firepower 2024 ranking, where Russia is second only to the USA and the ongoing war. Although Ukraine relies solely on its soldiers, it benefits from significant NATO armament support.
Russian losses in Ukraine: The numbers tell the story
Despite this, the Russians were able to occupy about 20 per cent of Ukraine's territory (a country with an area of over 600,000 square kilometres), which they continue to occupy. They systematically carry out assaults in the hope of further conquests and shell infrastructure and cities across almost all of Ukraine. However, this results in significant consequences, most clearly demonstrated by the data on Russian losses during the 1,000 days of the war in Ukraine.
The numbers vary depending on the source. Noteworthy are the reports from the creators of the Oryx blog, who document Russian equipment losses. They only account for Russian units whose destruction, damage, or capture by Ukrainians has been verified through photos or recordings from the front.
It is worth noting that the Russians have already lost 28 warships and submarines, rendering their Black Sea Fleet "functionally inactive". They have also lost over 3,500 tanks, machines that have long been symbols of any army's strength. Although the war in Ukraine has shown that the modern battlefield requires the use of previously unknown solutions (e.g., advanced electronic warfare systems or drones), tanks still play an essential role.
The Kremlin has not hesitated to send its most valuable T-90 family tanks to the front. These include the latest T-90M models with 125 mm 2A46M-5 cannon, an upgraded fire control system, and Relikt modular reactive armour. Vladimir Putin says they are "the best tanks in the world." Each is estimated to be worth about €4.42 million. Thus, the statistics showing that Ukrainians have already eliminated over 100 such tanks must be especially painful for him.
Growing problems and increasing support from allies
The Russian economy was switched to war mode and had long coped well with army equipment supplies and the effects of Western sanctions. However, over the months, problems with producing new tanks and refurbishing older units from storage began to surface - supplies of equipment suitable for the front are slowly running out. This applies not only to tanks but also to armoured combat vehicles and even artillery, which once seemed inexhaustible in Russia before the war in Ukraine.
The effects? Russian soldiers increasingly have to use decades-old equipment that has almost no combat value on the modern battlefield.
This includes T-62 tanks from the 1960s and even older T-55s. These constructions not only lack guns with appropriate power but also thermal imaging and other systems that provide situational awareness for the crew. Additionally, their armour cannot guarantee protection against enemy armoured weapons or drones.
The fact that Russian resources are not inexhaustible is also evidenced by the growing importance of the Kremlin's allies. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russia has closely cooperated with Iran, from which it acquired, among others, Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 drones. It also systematically tightened ties with North Korea. Initially, this manifested itself in supplies of various types of ammunition. Over time, Kim Jong Un decided to support Putin's army with ballistic missiles and, recently, with heavy military equipment in the form of M1989 "Koksan" artillery systems.
Their transfer to Russia was significantly remarked upon by defence analyst Jarosław Wolski, who stated that it is "the best proof that Russia isn’t a bottomless pit and is starting to experience a resource crisis". Concerns arise from the technical condition of this North Korean equipment and the fact that it uses an unusual calibre, meaning the Russians will have to rely on missile supplies from Pyongyang. The risk was taken, likely considering that Ukrainians have already eliminated over 850 Russian self-propelled artillery systems.
Ukrainians received the green light they had long awaited
President Joe Biden's administration has allowed Ukraine to use American weapons to attack targets deep within Russia. Until now, they could only be used to neutralise targets in territories occupied by the Russians.
This concerns ATACMS ballistic missiles with a range of about 300 kilometres. As we explained on WP Tech, they will be a significant problem for Russian aviation, which has already been heavily "bitten" by Ukrainians - nearly 300 enemy aircraft and helicopters have been eliminated. Among them were two A-50 AWACS (early warning) planes considered the eyes of Russian aviation. The cost of each such machine is about €323 million, but most daunting for the Russians, they have only a few, and quickly replacing them is impossible.
While less advanced equipment can be sought in storage or from allies, production and service introduction require enormous resources and years of work for such complex aircraft. For the same reasons, Ukrainians particularly celebrate hits on Ka-52 Alligator helicopters, S-400 anti-aircraft systems, and warships and submarines. The sinking of the missile cruiser "Moskva," which at the time of the Ukrainian attack served as the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, will forever remain one of the most important events of the war in Ukraine.
