Saudi arms deal: Historic figures shrouded in scepticism
Washington boasts about the largest arms deal in history, but experts temper the enthusiasm, reports Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia lacks such a budget, specifics are missing, and some of the terms are repetitions from the past. “It’s great publicity,” says Bruce Riedel of Brookings.
The Trump administration announced signing a record arms deal with Saudi Arabia worth €134 billion. The agreement includes cooperation in the air force, missile defence systems, maritime security, and modern technologies. However, analysts and former intelligence officials remain skeptical, according to Bloomberg.
“It’s great publicity — makes it look like this trip was spectacularly successful. But the numbers don’t add up,” comments Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer and security advisor, now an expert at the Brookings Institution.
An agreement full of unknowns
Neither the White House nor the Pentagon provided details: it is unknown which systems would be purchased, under what terms, or when the deliveries would occur. In the past, Trump announced significant transactions with Riyadh, such as in 2017, when he promised purchases worth €104 billion. In reality, about €28 billion of that amount was realised.
The State Department reminds us that active US-Saudi arms deals currently amount to over €121 billion, indicating that many of the previously announced transactions have not been completed.
The kingdom’s financial condition further fuels doubts. Saudi Arabia's annual defence budget is approximately €73 billion. Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2025 alone, the country’s debt rose by €28 billion, reaching a historic high. In this situation, questions about the feasibility of financing a €134 billion deal are justified.
According to experts, such a deal — even without full content — holds geopolitical value. After years of cool relations with the US, culminating in Joe Biden labelling Prince Mohammed bin Salman a "pariah," Riyadh is seeking ways to rebuild ties with Washington.
“A lot of this is about the optics, but the optics matter,” says Brian Katulis of the Middle East Institute. “It’s an attempt to send a message of reassurance after several years of uncertainty in the US-Saudi bilateral relationship on defence cooperation,” he adds.
There are also questions about the potential impact of the deal on Israel’s qualitative military edge, which the US has committed to protecting for years. However, experts, including Dana Stroul from the Washington Institute, emphasise that the general categories revealed so far do not indicate a breach of this balance.
Experts observe that even as Saudi Arabia builds closer ties with the United States, it is also charting an alternative path. Yoel Guzansky of Israel’s National Security Studies Institute explains that Riyadh remains wary of entirely relying on Washington and is expected to continue balancing its position by improving relations with Iran and cooperating with China and Russia.
