Strategic arms deliveries to Poland hint at shifting US‑Russia dynamics
In the last week of March, eight transport jumbo jets from the USA and Germany landed at Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport. Experts with whom PAP spoke believe this is a signal from Washington intended to pressure Putin into negotiations and prepare for a potential Russian offensive. They assess that the honeymoon in US-Russian negotiations is over.
The report appeared on the platform X on the OSINTtechnical account - an analytical group monitoring the Ukrainian-Russian war using open sources. The specialists relied on data from the FlightRadar24 service, which shows that as many as eight flights were made in the last week of March using civilian Boeing 747s in the transport version. All planes took off from four military bases in the USA and from Ramstein in Germany, and their destination was Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport.
Deliveries of American military equipment, despite their previous freeze, may be linked to Washington's new strategy.
As Dr habil. Maciej Milczanowski, a security expert from the University of Rzeszów, pointed out in an interview with PAP, "Donald Trump is frustrated with Russia, as Ms. Leavitt (Karoline, the White House spokeswoman) mentioned."
His administration is gradually and methodically realising that it doesn't work like you call Putin and propose 'let's reset, but end this war,' the expert believes.
Therefore, Washington sends a signal to Moscow in the form of intensive arms transports - seemingly discreet, but not discreet enough to go unnoticed.
Reports, such as those about jumbo jets with military transports to Rzeszów, are seemingly uncontrolled leaks, but in fact, they are deliberately released by the American administration. It is a signal that if Russia, after this back-patting, does not agree to peace, then the Americans will "hit hard" with aid to Ukraine. The White House knows that such increased activity will not go unnoticed, even in the Kremlin. In my opinion, this is an attempt to apply a "lever" that will influence Moscow to make decisions expected by Trump, Milczanowski argued.
"Putin ready for peace on his terms"
Grzegorz Kuczyński, a journalist and analyst specialising in issues related to Russia, interprets it similarly. As he emphasised, currently, no large NATO exercises with the participation of Americans are taking place, so this context of the Ukrainian-Russian war suggests itself.
The honeymoon in US-Russian negotiations is over. Considering that Russians also play with unofficial information leaks indicating that Putin is ready for peace, but only on his terms. Reports about arms transports should be considered a similar move, only from the American side, the PAP interlocutor explained.
He emphasises that such an action is not particularly surprising: "even before Trump became president, his advisers, such as Keith Kellogg, when asked about what a plan to encourage both sides to talk would look like, mentioned that they would influence Ukraine by withholding arms supplies, while towards Russia - drastically increasing aid for Ukraine."
What was on board the American planes?
It is not known what the purpose of the loads arriving from American military bases to Rzeszów is. In Kuczyński's opinion, the armament will remain in Poland for the time being, to swiftly transfer it to the war zone if necessary.
Trump is still counting on concessions, but nothing at least now indicates it - Russia is not only not reducing pressure on the front, but there are reports that it intends to increase it and is preparing something serious - said the PAP interlocutor. He emphasised that the Trump administration doesn't like to talk about military aid to Ukraine at all. "As we remember, there was also its freezing. Hence such discreet actions, which the Russian side certainly notices."
It remains unknown what was on board the civilian jumbo jets used by Washington. We are probably not talking about heavy equipment. I suspect there might have been ammunition for the systems available to the Ukrainians, which they have already run out of, such as ATACMS missiles. Even short-term yet intensive use of them, along with target coordinates at the rear of the front, such as logistics hubs - provided by American intelligence, could effectively prevent a predicted Russian offensive - Kuczyński assessed.
Let's remember that regardless of talks with Kyiv or with Moscow, the Americans are not interested in Russia gaining any decisive advantage on the front, he added.
