Trump and Putin talks highlight dim prospects for Ukraine peace

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin spoke by phone on Monday for approximately two hours. The initial reports from the White House and Kremlin were optimistic.

Donald Trump announced that "negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will begin immediately." Referring to efforts to end the war, he stated at the White House: "I believe we have a good chance to achieve this. I think Putin wants it," he declared.

In turn, Putin said after his conversation with Donald Trump that Russia is prepared to work on a memorandum with Ukraine, which would include a ceasefire. According to Putin, the most effective path to peace and "fair compromises" needs to be found, although he did not specify what these should entail.

However, on Monday evening, during a phone conversation with European heads of state and government, they felt that the US president was not prepared to pressure the Kremlin leader to sit at the negotiating table. In their view, Putin has not abandoned his demands since the war broke out in 2022, such as "eliminating the fundamental causes of the crisis". The Kremlin interprets this as, among other things, the abandonment of NATO ambitions, demilitarisation, and "denazification" of Ukraine.

According to global media, the leaders' messages are one thing; the agreements, quite another.

According to the American news network CNN, Putin seeks peace, but only on terms that would be unacceptable for Ukraine as a sovereign nation. In their assessment, the recent conversation between the parties merely underscored the deep divisions and highlighted how distant a peaceful resolution remains.

Similar comments appeared on Tuesday in the German press. "Trump is roughly taking Putin's stance, who does not want to stop fighting but always offers negotiations," ironises "Der Spiegel."

Meanwhile, the weekly "Die Zeit" emphasises that anyone who hoped Donald Trump would pressure Russia is disappointed. "Negotiations regarding Ukraine are at the same stage as they were a few months ago," it states.

Experts express similar sentiments in conversation with Wirtualna Polska.

"I see no breakthrough after Trump’s conversation with Putin. It seems the Russian leader is still outmanoeuvring everyone, chiefly the American president. He feigns readiness for talks, but nothing substantial results from these exchanges. Following the talks in Istanbul, which were to involve Putin, Trump, and Zelensky, nothing materialised," says prof. Tomasz Płudowski, an American studies expert at the Academy of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw.

In his opinion, Trump still focuses on the commercial aspect of talks with Putin.

"This has been his approach from the start. He considers what he might gain from his involvement in ending the war, as with Ukraine. He swiftly latched onto an idea suggested by Volodymyr Zelensky concerning the use of rare earth resources. If he's willing to do this in relation to a country defending itself against an aggressor, he's even more predisposed to conduct business with Russia," the Americanist tells us.

In his view, Trump is increasingly crafting a narrative that he has no involvement with the war and it’s not his responsibility.

"This is in case the negotiations don't succeed. As we see, much suggests this outcome. He attempts to blame the Democrats for the war, but the responsibility rests with him, especially as he promised to end the war," assesses prof. Tomasz Płudowski.

Meanwhile, Crimean political scientist Nedim Useinov notes that the arrangements following the phone conversation between the two leaders resemble the same old narrative we've heard before.

"Putin keeps playing a game with Trump. He claims he's 'interested in peace, but…' and consistently presents a list of conditions. Unfortunately, Trump isn't a specialist on Russia. He doesn't grasp the nature of the Kremlin’s demands. Trump assumes the goal of both sides is to strike a deal, yet Putin isn't willing to negotiate. Apparently, his advisors fear enlightening him about the truth, a maturity the American president hasn't yet achieved emotionally," says Nedim Useinov, an expert from the think tank The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF).

In his opinion, there's a lot of improvisation in Trump's approach, faith in his intuition, striking ideas, and tactics.

"The problem lies in his lack of knowledge about Russia and not allowing experienced advisors to speak up, which keeps him somewhat tethered to Putin. The Russian leader declares: 'I want peace' and flatters Trump's vanity. Then quickly adds: 'I won’t talk to Zelensky, only with you. Go, convince the Ukrainian president to yield. You will then represent him at the table with me'," comments Nedim Useinov.

"I wouldn’t be surprised if in the conversation Putin advised Trump there's no point in discussing with the Ukrainian president at all, suggesting they should agree on terms themselves and Zelensky must accept them," believes the political scientist from Crimea.

After the conversation with Putin, Trump also spoke to Volodymyr Zelensky.

"I asked him not to make decisions regarding Ukraine without Ukraine's involvement," Zelensky said later. He added Ukraine would not withdraw its troops from its territories or accept Russian ultimatums.

Zelensky stated that indeed, a memorandum with Russia is possible, which could lead to an agreement ending the war. "We will await the Russian version of this memorandum. Our intention is clear: we want to end the war, but I don't know the true position of the Russians. Perhaps they themselves do not know what they want," added Zelensky.

According to the Russian news agency Tass, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed that there is no timeframe for developing the memorandum. "There are no deadlines and there cannot be any," said Peskov. He added that everyone wants progress as quickly as possible, but "the devil is in the details." Peskov also stated that the venue for new contacts with Kyiv has not been determined.