Trump and Zelensky Vatican talks: A potential turning point?

It should be noted that the meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, took place before Pope Francis's funeral. According to the White House, the conversation was highly productive. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky echoed this sentiment, describing it as a symbolic meeting that, he added, could prove historic.

"A good meeting. We managed to discuss a lot one-on-one. We hope for a result from all the things that were said. Protection of the lives of our people. A complete and unconditional ceasefire. A reliable and lasting peace that will prevent a recurrence of war," Zelensky wrote on the Telegram app.

Following the meeting, the American president took to social media to threaten additional sanctions on Russia. "There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days. It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through "Banking" or "Secondary Sanctions?" Too many people are dying!!!" Trump wrote on the Truth Social platform.

As early as Sunday, Trump revealed to journalists that he and the Ukrainian president briefly addressed the issue of Crimea. He reiterated that the seizure of the peninsula by Russia occurred during Barack Obama’s administration. When asked if Zelensky would be ready to give up Crimea, Trump responded that he "thinks so."

Interestingly, before the Vatican meeting, Trump gave an interview to "The Atlantic" magazine. He suggested he is considering clear support for Ukraine, clarifying that this doesn't necessarily equate to siding with President Zelensky. "I've had a hard time with Zelensky. You saw that over here when he was sitting right in that chair, when he just couldn't get it," Trump said, referring to their public disagreement in the White House.

According to former Polish ambassador to Kyiv, Jan Piekło, Trump and Zelensky simply do not like each other and struggle to get along. "In July 2019, Donald Trump called newly elected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He asked him to launch an investigation into Hunter Biden, Joe Biden's son, who was on the board of the Ukrainian company Burisma. Trump wanted to prove that Biden was involved in corruption in Ukraine. Zelensky did not comply with Trump’s request at the time. And the American president does bear grudges," says Jan Piekło.

However, according to the former Polish ambassador to Kyiv, more significant than the recent interview was the one-on-one meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky at the Vatican. Jan Piekło believes it could be groundbreaking.

"It sends a powerful message. Both parties were aware that the meeting at the Vatican could be key to resolving contentious issues. It's worth noting that in the funeral ceremonies, neither the Moscow Patriarch nor all of Rus' Cyril attended; only his envoy did. This can be perceived as Russia dismissing the funeral ceremonies. Most importantly, after the weekend, Trump returned to the rhetoric criticising Putin and didn't rule out imposing sanctions. He also suggested that the issue of rearming Ukraine is back on the table," says Jan Piekło.

Meanwhile, retired Col. Piotr Lewandowski observes that on the one hand, Trump's policy still appears naive. "We didn’t know whether to laugh or cry when the American president said that Putin respects him and wouldn’t deceive. He didn’t respect Obama, he didn’t respect Biden. And me, Trump, he respects. Suppose someone is basing Russian policy on this foundation. In that case, we have such, and no other, negotiations in ending the war," says Lewandowski, a veteran of military missions in Afghanistan and Iraq.

On the other hand, Lewandowski opines that Russia has underestimated Washington. "The White House won't be fooled. The Trump administration won't allow itself to be manipulated in such a blatant way. We've reached a point where Washington is starting to open its eyes. Trump no longer has the same people around him that he had during his first term in the White House. Now he has associates who share plans for an attack on the Houthis in Yemen via the Signal app. There is no quality there. But even they are beginning to open their eyes," assesses the former military man.

According to Jan Piekło, if Zelensky agreed to hand Crimea over to Russia, it would be political suicide for him.

"And for any Ukrainian leader who would be in his place. Another important context regarding the peninsula is that Turkey has never agreed to the annexation of Crimea. Turkey consistently supports the existing borders. Ankara controls the Bosporus and does not want to allow Putin to take control of the strait. That's why Turkey doesn't agree to Crimea being Russian. As the strongest NATO country in that region, it has a voice in the White House. It's far from certain that the United States will agree to this. Certainly, neither Kyiv nor Europe will agree to Russian demands," says Jan Piekło, former Polish ambassador in Kyiv.

As he adds, there might be a formula in which Crimea, not just the peninsula, would be managed by an international agency, such as the UN or OSCE.

"In the meantime, negotiations would continue regarding the peninsula's future. Unfortunately, due to Russian policy, Crimea's demographic composition has changed. Crimean Tatars are persecuted and have mostly left. The peninsula has been Russified contrary to the law. A large group of people has moved there, tasked with establishing a Russian presence in Crimea," Piekło reminds us.

Meanwhile, retired Col. Piotr Lewandowski points out that Ukraine lacks the military capability to regain Crimea. "Occasionally, Ukrainian forces attack the peninsula. Russian troops there are seen as occupying forces. If Ukraine renounced its rights, it would no longer be able to target Russian forces in Crimea. The issue of the Crimean Peninsula will be one of the most challenging in these negotiations," assesses the former military man.