Trump's stance boosts Kremlin as Ukraine peace dims
Russia is still refusing to sign up to an unconditional comprehensive ceasefire. It has no intention of returning any of the Ukrainian land it has seized, assesses Steve Rosenberg, BBC correspondent in Moscow, analysing negotiations with Russia following Putin's statement on continuing peace talks.
Rosenberg points out that despite ongoing discussions about a potential future "memorandum" on peace, fighting persists. Russia continues to refuse signing an unconditional, comprehensive ceasefire. It has no intent of returning any of the Ukrainian territories it has taken, occupied, and claims to have annexed. On the contrary: it is pushing for more.
The past fortnight has revealed much. It is evident how Russia is neutralising potential threats and biding its time.
On 10th May, following a phone call with Donald Trump, European leaders issued President Putin an ultimatum: agree to an unconditional, long-term ceasefire in Ukraine within two days or face new, severe sanctions.
Putin circumvented the European ultimatum by proposing direct talks in Turkey. This idea was met with scepticism in Ukraine and across Europe. However, it was sufficient to calm Trump and convince him that Russia was serious about peace. He supported the talks. The "further" new sanctions were postponed.
Before the meeting in Istanbul on 16th May, President Trump hinted that Vladimir Putin might attend. The Kremlin leader did not, instead sending a low-level delegation that once again rejected the idea of a long-term ceasefire. However, once again, the modest results of the talks sufficed to persuade the U.S. president that progress had been made.
During the Trump-Putin phone call on 19th May, Russia once more did not agree to an immediate, comprehensive cessation of hostilities. Instead, President Trump declared: "Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War."
"But Moscow is already casting doubt on whether it would sign any future peace treaty with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. For a year now the Russian authorities have been attempting to delegitimise Ukraine's president since the expiry of his presidential term. However, Ukraine's Constitution prohibits the holding of elections in wartime. And the reason for martial law in Ukraine is Russia's invasion.," writes Rosenberg.
Would Russia sit down and sign a peace agreement with President Zelensky? I asked Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday, Steve Rosenberg reports.
- You're putting the cart before the horse - Lavrov replied. - First we need to have a deal. When it's agreed, then we will decide. But, as President Putin has said many times, President Zelensky does not have legitimacy… Probably the best option would be new elections.
Russian press: This is an ultimatum in the face of the bear
The atmosphere in the Kremlin is mirrored by the Russian press: "Russia has won the latest round of global poker," declared the newspaper Izvestia last week.
"Donald Trump's stance couldn't be more advantageous to Moscow" - wrote Kommersant. "In effect he backed Russia's position of 'Talks first, ceasefire later' and refused to strengthen sanctions against Russia."
A sociologist told Kommersant: "Donald Trump, at least for now, is our ideological partner on certain issues. His views are much closer to Russia's than to Europe's."
And the very pro-Kremlin Komsomolskaya Pravda sent the following message to European leaders: "You were warned. Don't wave threats and ultimatums in the face of the bear. Don't try to impose conditions in talks that have nothing to do with you Just sit in the lobby and breathe in the smell of the new world order."
Moscow's confidence is also boosted by the belief that in Ukraine, Russia has the initiative on the battlefield.
Trump's promise to end the war in 24 hours
In 2023, Donald Trump promised that if he won the presidential election, "we will have the horrible war between Russia and Ukraine settled… I'll get them both. I know Zelensky, I know Putin. It'll be done within 24 hours, you watch."
President Trump appears determined to continue his rapprochement with Russia no matter the situation in Ukraine, concludes Steve Rosenberg.
"President Trump does not link continued US-Russia dialogue to the Ukraine peace process" - read the headline in the Russian state newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta this week.
So far, the Kremlin has managed to reject or circumvent any pressure to make compromises and concessions on the war with Ukraine. It seems confident it will be able to continue doing so, states the BBC correspondent in Moscow.
