Ukraine peace talks downgraded as Crimea dispute deepens
In London on Wednesday, the scheduled high-level talks on peace in Ukraine will not take place as initially planned. The level of the meeting has been downgraded. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will not represent the U.S. due to Kyiv's refusal to recognise one of the key conditions. Does this signify that the White House intends to withdraw from negotiations definitively?
According to earlier announcements, the foreign ministers of the U.S., France, Germany, and Ukraine were expected to attend the meeting in London. The absence of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been confirmed by the White House.
Unofficial sources suggest that this is in response to President Volodymyr Zelensky's statement, which firmly rejected a significant point in the American ceasefire proposal: recognising Russia's annexation of Crimea.
"Ukraine will never legally recognise the occupation of Crimea. This is against our constitution," Zelensky stated during a press conference on Tuesday. A meeting involving foreign ministers will be held at a later date.
The U.S. will be represented by General Keith Kellogg, President Trump's special envoy for Ukraine. The State Department attributes the absence to "logistical issues," but observers interpret this as a clear indication of frustration and lack of progress in Washington. Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to suspend efforts to end the war if the negotiations make no progress.
On Tuesday, the U.S. stance was criticised by the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, who stated that they have not utilised all the tools available to them to exert pressure on Russia.
Kallas noted that Kyiv and its European allies had hoped Washington would take a stronger stance against Moscow. She emphasised that it would be a mistake for the U.S. to view the recognition of Crimea as Russian territory as part of a peace agreement. According to her, the EU will never recognise the peninsula as Russian. "Crimea is Ukraine," Kallas added.
Mariusz Marszałkowski, an expert from the Defence24.pl portal, believes that forcing territorial concessions on Ukraine and imposing other prohibitive conditions proposed by Russia will result in resistance from Kyiv.
"That's not how it works"
– Trump has underestimated Zelensky from the start while bargaining with Russia. Essentially, he has only made concessions to Putin. When he then approaches Ukraine with proposals, he is surprised that Kyiv does not accept their ideas. The American administration seemed to believe it could reach an agreement with Moscow and resolve the matter. That's not how it works, especially since Zelensky plays hard and has no intention of backing down, says WP Mariusz Marszałkowski, an expert from Defence24.pl.
He emphasises that the Russians are very skilled negotiators.
– Considering their system and state character, and despite waging war for over three years, Putin remains in control of his country. We do not see signs of rebellion or division within Russian society, which provides Moscow with momentum in negotiations. The Kremlin holds the bargaining advantage. The American administration should be prepared for this, and it's evident that it wanted a swift end to the war, which was part of Trump’s electoral promise – evaluates Mariusz Marszałkowski.
He recalls that the issue of Crimea was the main point raised by Ukraine until the outbreak of the war in 2022.
"Kremlin's logic"
– Kyiv constantly reminded everyone of the illegal occupation of the peninsula by the Russians. Crimea was a symbol. After the full-scale invasion, the situation changed somewhat. Even though Ukraine maintained its sovereignty and independence, it lost significant territory, especially in four regions: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. The situation has shifted from symbolic to practical, and regaining Crimea's independence is much, much harder today – says WP Mariusz Marszałkowski.
But, as the interviewee from Wirtualna Polska emphasises, Zelensky as president will not agree to the annexation of Crimea, which, according to the constitution, is still Ukrainian territory. He will not agree, seeing the conditions imposed on Ukraine.
– This involves halting the fighting on the front line and the takeover by Russians of those territories where their soldiers are currently stationed. This includes the takeover of control by the USA over Europe’s largest nuclear power plant – the Zaporizhzhia plant. Plus, a resource agreement favourable to the United States that does not exclude USA-Russia cooperation. So, let's give everything up, agree to the conditions proposed by the White House, and then end the war. It's Kremlin logic. Ukraine will not agree, claims the expert from the Defence24 portal.
In Marszałkowski's opinion, recognising the annexation of Crimea could mean political suicide for Zelensky and would also be a legal breach of the Ukrainian constitution.
As reported by "The Guardian," the United Kingdom placed significant importance on the meeting planned for Wednesday, with delegations from France and Germany also expected to participate. However, the downgrade of the discussion's rank occurred after leaks suggested that Russia is willing to relinquish its territorial claims over three Ukrainian regions it only partially occupies, in exchange for the United States recognising the annexation of Crimea.
