Ukraine's daring airstrike rattles Russia's nuclear defence
The strike by Ukraine on Russian strategic bomber bases, conducted on Sunday afternoon, shocked Moscow, causing a bitter sense of unease among Kremlin officials over the vulnerability of nuclear forces, Bloomberg reports, citing sources familiar with the situation.
According to one of the agency's sources close to the Kremlin, the armed forces lost about 10 aircraft as a result of the attack, which were considered well protected from attacks because they were stationed deep within the country.
Divergence regarding the destroyed machines
OSINT analysts assessed Russia's losses at 13–15 machines; the number of 13 destroyed bombers was also reported by the pro-Russian military channel "Rybar."
In total, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia possesses 55 strategic bombers Tu-95 and Tu-160 with a range of over 10,000 kilometres, as well as 60 Tu-22M3, which have a range of up to 6,400 kilometres and are classified as tactical nuclear weapons carriers.
The Kremlin is silent for 48 hours
Thus, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to eliminate up to 10% of Russian strategic aviation. Nevertheless, Kyiv's operation will not significantly affect Russia's nuclear capability, sources close to the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defence told Bloomberg. The main part of Russia's warheads is located on land and sea-based missiles – a total of 567 units, according to SIPRI data.
The attack will also not affect Moscow's ability to carry out strikes on Ukraine, as a limited number of aircraft are used for this purpose, Bloomberg's sources claim.
Nevertheless, the effect of the attack is "quite sensitive and unpleasant" stated Dmitry Stefanovich, an analyst from the International Security Centre MGIMO. Even though more than 48 hours have passed since the attack, neither President Vladimir Putin nor the Kremlin have commented on it.
The usually vocal Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev also "fell silent," despite previously threatening Kyiv and the West with nuclear war in late May. The Duma deputies are also silent, and the Russian Ministry of Defence limited itself to a laconic communication, admitting only "the ignition of several pieces of equipment."
According to Dan Lomas, an intelligence and security expert from the University of Nottingham, the result of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' operation will be an increase in paranoia among Russian special services.
Paranoia of Russian services is growing
– Ukraine’s intelligence agencies have the skills, determination and — more importantly — the ability to strike across Russia, and increased success only builds on that paranoia. Where next, and how are they able to operate within Russia, embarrassing the FSB and other internal security apparatus? And the paranoia is a steady drip, drip effect that's hard to get over long term – said Lomas to The Moscow Times.
On Sunday, the Security Service of Ukraine targeted airbases where Russian strategic aviation was stationed. In the "Spiderweb" operation, 41 machines were destroyed, including A-50, Tu-95, Tu-22 M3, and Tu-160 aircraft. Experts have no doubt that the Ukrainian raid was the most impressive and effective operation in the entire war.
