Ukraine's defence under threat: Russian buildup signals new offensive
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns that Ukraine's current front line does not provide enough strategic depth to defend against Russian attacks.
The American think tank ISW points out that the current front-line layout doesn't give the Ukrainian army the capability to effectively repel Russian offensives. According to the Polish Press Agency, a ceasefire might give Russia time to prepare a larger offensive, posing a serious threat to Ukraine.
Analysts from ISW note that the Russians are increasing the construction of infrastructure, such as roads and railways, to bolster connections with occupied territories in Ukraine. These actions aim to consolidate Russian control over these areas. In the event of a ceasefire, Russia could prepare a large-scale offensive, including a crossing over the Dnipro River, which might threaten cities like Zaporizhzhia.
Mike Waltz, a former security advisor to U.S. President Donald Trump, stated on Fox News that Ukraine might receive security guarantees in exchange for territorial concessions. However, the specifics of these guarantees weren't detailed. Waltz emphasised that Washington would consider "realities on the battlefield" during diplomatic discussions regarding the war's end.
Need for military support
ISW stresses that Russian forces are close to Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, necessitating the quick delivery of additional arms to Ukraine from Europe and the U.S. If a ceasefire were to freeze the current front line, significant European forces would be required to defend against future attacks. Recapturing strategic territories by Ukraine could reduce peace costs for Kyiv and the West.
Despite negotiations, Moscow has no intention of yielding on the issue of the seized territories. The Kremlin opposes the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine and can't imagine Kyiv joining the alliance. This stance by Russia remains unchanged, further complicating the situation on the front.
