Ukrainian advance in Kursk faces significant challenges but aims long-term

John R. Deni, a professor at the Institute for Strategic Studies at the U.S. Army War College and a war analyst, is convinced that the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region will not conclude swiftly. Despite losing considerable equipment, the risk might yield the anticipated benefits for Ukrainians.

The American expert believes that the operation in the Kursk region will be regarded as a long-term endeavour. Despite encountering challenges in regions like the Donbas, Ukraine decided to open a new front, hoping to bolster its position in the "non-existent peace talks" and encourage the West to extend more assistance. Additionally, it might be an attempt to draw Russian units operating in Donbas and Zaporizhia, thereby preventing invaders from advancing on Ukrainian territories.

"It is possible, though not yet certain, that the offensive in the Kursk region is not merely an opportunistic gambit but rather part of a broader military campaign that may extend to 2025, deliberately preparing the ground for operations in other areas," writes John R. Deni in his column quoted by the Unian agency.

Western military estimates, cited by Unian, suggest that Ukraine has deployed around 6,000 soldiers to the Kursk region, with an additional 4,000 stationed as support in the Sumy region. According to "The Wall Street Journal," to halt the Ukrainian offensive, the Russians need to reposition over 20,000 of their soldiers to defence.

The progress made by Ukrainians comes at a high cost. American media, referring to data provided by an Oryx analyst, report that Ukrainians are losing twice as many armoured vehicles as the defending Russians.

The lost equipment primarily includes armoured personnel carriers, as well as infantry fighting vehicles and tanks.

Photos appearing on social media confirm losses involving, for example, American Stryker personnel carriers, which can transport up to nine soldiers and attack the enemy with a Browning M2 machine gun with a calibre of 12.7 mm and a range of around one mile and a Mk 19 grenade launcher with a calibre of 40 mm.

The Russians also destroyed at least one Polish PT-91 Twardy tank participating in the offensive, likely a victim of a Lancet-3 drone. The PT-91 Twardy is a significant modernisation of the Soviet-era T-72, equipped with a better engine and ERAWA reactive armour. The list of equipment lost by the Ukrainians also includes post-Soviet BMP family carriers, original T-72 tanks, and German Marder infantry fighting vehicles.

According to Philip Wasielewski, an analyst at the military think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute and a former CIA officer, the Ukrainian operation has both propaganda and military significance.

"Of course, this offensive is a major blow to Putin's image; it significantly boosts Ukrainian morale and has resulted in the capture of hundreds, if not more than a thousand, prisoners who will prove useful. But what many commentators overlook is the fact that with this move, Ukraine has turned this conflict back into manoeuvre warfare, where the Ukrainian army has the upper hand," assessed Philip Wasielewski.