Ukrainian advance in Kursk may prompt Russian missile barrage

According to analysts, the Ukrainian offensive towards the Kursk region of the Russian Federation may result in a retaliatory mass shelling targeting Ukraine. Konstantyn Krywołap, an aviation industry expert, discussed with the Ukrainian station Kanal24 the number of aircraft Russia has at its disposal and the potential number of missiles it can launch.

It is worth noting that the Ukrainian advance towards the Kursk region is proceeding as planned, with Ukrainian forces occupying further areas of the Russian Federation. In response, the Russians have been shelling their own territory with powerful Iskander missiles intended to strike Ukrainian positions. However, these efforts are not proving effective, prompting Moscow to urgently seek assistance from Belarus. Belarus has agreed and committed to supplying military equipment.

Western analysts suspect that the Russian Federation may retaliate by launching hundreds of missiles and drones at Ukraine. However, Konstantym Krywołap advises caution, suggesting that the potential for mass shelling needs careful analysis.

“The Russians cannot physically deploy more than 500-550 Shahed drones within a month,” notes the expert. Regarding missiles, Krywołap explains the available aircraft in the Russian Federation’s arsenal. He states that Russia currently has 12-13 Tu-95 bombers, which can collectively carry a maximum of 26 Kh-22 missiles (each weighing nearly 6 tons) at a time. “Yes, that's the situation; these missiles simply break the wings,” adds Krywołap, noting that if Russia wants to preserve its Tu-95 aircraft, they might add only 3-4 missiles.

“There is also the Tu-22M3, of which there are 27 in total, but discounting 30 percent, there are about 18 operational units capable of launching the Kh-22 missile. I cannot recall a single instance where the Russians equipped more than two such missiles,” said Krywołap. The expert also expresses uncertainty about Russia's willingness to engage in mass shelling, given that it may need to "deal with other matters." He further notes that if Russia truly intends to target specific objectives, it is more likely to use Iskanders or Korean KN-23 missiles.

The Tu-95 planes, as mentioned by Krywołap, are 1980s-era bombers capable of carrying up to 20 tons of armaments. These aircraft are powered by four Kuznetsov KN12 turboprop engines, which allow them to reach speeds of up to 515 mph. Their maximum range, without in-flight refuelling, is 6,520 miles.

On the other hand, the Tu-22M3 bombers, also referenced by Krywołap, are more modern and are powered by two jet engines. These aircraft can reach speeds of up to 1,429 mph, and the latest variant (designated “M3”) has a range of 4,350 miles in a single flight. The Tu-22M3 can carry missiles and bombs with a total weight of up to 24 tons.