Ukrainian drones set to disrupt Moscow's Victory Parade
This year's Victory Parade in Moscow may proceed tumultuously. While Putin threatens to utilise the Orieshnik, Ukrainians are painting messages on drones. Here's what might be heading towards Moscow on 9 May.
Russia attempted to secure a three-day ceasefire to conduct the Victory Parade on Red Square. However, it seems that not much will come of it, and in retaliation for multiple attacks on their cities, Ukrainians might attack Moscow with a swarm of drones.
Despite being easy targets for air defence, some of these may get through. It’s worth noting that even the best air defence system won’t help if there are more targets than missiles in the launcher. Another issue is detecting low-flying objects over the ground by ground-based radars, whose range is limited to 40 kilometres due to the radar horizon.
What Ukrainians might use to attack Moscow
The Ukrainians have developed a range of long-range drones or systems resembling cruise missiles or fully-fledged cruise missiles. The first category includes drones like "Bóbr," "UJ-22," "Airborne," or "Rubaka." These are simple constructions with an internal combustion engine and a wingspan of approximately 3 metres or more. Their range varies greatly, but it typically is 500 kilometres or more.
Their takeoff weight is several dozen kilograms, with a few or several kilograms being some form of explosive material. The rest is occupied by fuel, an engine usually with a push propeller, and simple electronics.
The drone is guided based on inertial (INS) and satellite (GPS) navigation, usually with poor accuracy when encountering jammers. They are cheap to produce but slow (flying speed is slightly over 100 kilometres per hour), so the object being attacked can potentially be evacuated. However, the Russians must shoot them down, which doesn’t occur without collateral damage.
turbojet drones and cruise missiles
The situation is more advantageous with "Palyanytsya" drones with turbojet engines, which are much faster, leaving the Russians less time to react, or with fully-fledged cruise missiles like "Long Neptune" with a range of up to 1,000 kilometres. These missiles are also equipped with an active radar seeker used to find and hit the target even under severe jamming conditions in the final phase of the missile's flight. Such an extensive range also permits creatively plotting flight paths, such as attacking Moscow from the East.
It is assumed that in retaliation for missile and drone attacks on their cities, Ukrainians may attack Moscow with a mix of the above on 9 May 2025. It’s important to note that even the threat alone could impact the capabilities of Russian forces, as many air defence systems might be drawn to Moscow at the expense of units fighting in Ukraine.
