Ukrainian forces launch major offensive in Kursk region, Russia

“It’s a large-scale provocation by the Kyiv regime,” said Vladimir Putin, who decided to comment on the events in the Kursk region after more than a day. Ukrainian forces, numbering up to 10,000, entered the area on Tuesday morning and occupied three villages. Battles for more locations are ongoing. Together with experts, we explain what Ukraine might achieve with this move.

Tuesday, 1 AM. Over several hundred metres, hundreds of soldiers and dozens of armoured vehicles crossed the border into the Kursk region in Russia at several points. Local war correspondents report that heavy fighting is ongoing. For several hours, the Russian Ministry of Defence remained silent, as did Kyiv.

Only after six hours did the Russians admit that there had indeed been an infiltration by “enemy sabotage and assault groups,” which they claimed to have immediately broken up. The Federal Security Service (FSB) also issued reassuring statements. Meanwhile, despite official assurances from the Russian Ministry of Defence and FSB, Kremlin-aligned war correspondents reported the progress of Ukrainian forces in the region throughout the day.

Wednesday morning, the independent Russian portal Meduza, citing the Rybar channel on Telegram, whose sources are close to the Russian Ministry of Defence, reported that Ukrainian forces had taken control of three villages in the Kursk region. “They managed to capture fortified positions in the border zone,” the reports read. According to these sources, Ukrainian soldiers occupied the localities of Nikolayevo-Daryino, Daryino, and Sverdlykovo. Currently, fighting is ongoing in Goncharovka and Oleshni (as of Wednesday at 8 AM Greenwich Time).

What might be the objective of the Ukrainian action? “It is to take operational initiative from the Russians, who are constantly pressing towards Donbas. They have had many successes, but Russian forces are advancing at a rate of a few miles per month,” says Lt. Col. (Ret.) Maciej Korowaj, an expert in Russian military tactics, in an interview with Wirtualna Polska.

The military expert adds that the Ukrainians struck at the “soft underbelly.” “In the Kursk region, reserve regiments and parts of border battalions were stationed. There are also many units of Rosgvardiya and one Akhmat regiment. There was also the 104th Airborne Regiment from the 76th Army there. These are not forces that can stop the Ukrainians. The Russians will therefore be forced to transfer some forces from active front lines,” he emphasises.

How many Ukrainians might have entered the Kursk region? Initial information spoke of a group of about 100. Subsequently, the Russian Ministry of Defence claimed it was 300 and included several pieces of heavy equipment. Rybar channel reports that up to 400 Ukrainian soldiers entered the Kursk region, and about 2,000 are near the border.

“This may indicate that the Ukrainians are bringing in sufficient forces to defeat the opponent, occupy the area, and entrench themselves. Then, fresh forces are brought in to attack further positions. This is a step-by-step method of attacking. As a result, within just a day, the Ukrainians advanced to a depth of about 6-7 miles, which is a very fast pace of attack,” adds Korowaj.

The Dva Majora channel, a Russian channel with sources close to the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, estimates that up to 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers could be present in the Kursk region.

“Assume that if the Ukrainians have a group of about 10,000 soldiers there, the Russians need to have at least half that number just to hold them back. So an entire Russian brigade of 5,000 troops will only attempt to stop the advance. I believe the Ukrainians have much more than 10,000 soldiers there. This means the Russians will have to transfer an entire corps or army there, but these will only be forces needed to hold back the advance. If the Ukrainians advance further and entrench themselves, the Russians will need five times more soldiers to push them back,” the expert calculates.

If we assume that 10,000 Ukrainians have penetrated the Kursk region, Russia will need to transfer 50,000 soldiers from active front lines to defeat them.

According to Meduza, the events in the Kursk region indicate that the Ukrainian operation had been prepared for a long time and, judging by the number of soldiers near the border, it may last at least several more days.

According to the channels Archangel Special Forces and Dva Majora, Ukrainian forces are moving towards the town of Sudzha, whose residents were reportedly evacuated. According to Russian sources, the authorities in Kyiv may aim to destroy the gas measuring station in Sudzha.

On Wednesday at 1 PM, reports emerged that Ukrainian forces had captured the town. The shelling of the locality was said to have lasted several hours, and residents complained that the authorities had left them to their fate.

The Baza channel published a recording of one of the clergy, who claims that “the town is in ruins,” and civilians have taken refuge in the local church. “All of Sudzha is burning,” says the clergyman in the recording, explosions can be heard in the background.

At the same time, the measuring station was said to have been captured by the Ukrainians. It is the only transit line for delivering Russian raw materials to Central and Western Europe. In May 2022, the Ukrainian side refused to accept gas through the "Sakhranovka" measuring station in the Luhansk region, as it is under the control of Russian forces.

Furthermore, gas pumping through Belarusian territory ceased in May 2022 when Poland terminated the relevant agreement with Gazprom.

According to Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak, what we are witnessing is another Ukrainian raid operation, of which there have been several in the past, both in the Belgorod and Kursk regions.

“These are raid operations combined with reconnaissance in force of Russian intentions. Ukrainians have long feared an attack from the north from the Kursk and Belgorod directions, and westwards from Kharkiv. The Russians would likely like to encircle Kharkiv, which the Ukrainians feared, hence these strikes aimed at recognising Russian intentions,” says the former commander of the land forces in an interview with WP.

The second goal of the raids is the “destruction of the administrative and logistical systems of the Russian army in both regions.” “Through such actions, they also disrupt the functioning of the Russian community in these areas. This creates anxiety and a lack of faith in the capabilities of the Russian army,” he emphasises.

General Skrzypczak underlines that the success of this raid also proves that the Russians do not maintain quick reaction forces in the vicinity that could be immediately utilised.

On Wednesday at 11 AM, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin convened an urgent Security Council meeting. Heads of all security agencies, both chambers of the parliament, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, former President Dmitry Medvedev, and Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Sergey Shoigu attended the meeting.

“As you know, the Kyiv regime has undertaken another large-scale provocation, shelling residential buildings, including ambulances, with various weapons, including missiles,” stated the dictator. “I also ask the government to urgently deal with this matter,” he added.

Later, at 2 PM, during another meeting with the heads of the Ministry of Defence, FSB, and General Staff, Putin was informed that “the offensive of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region has been halted.”

“On the 6th of August at 4:30 AM, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched an offensive with up to 1,000 soldiers to take part of the Sudzhensky district. According to the Ministry of Defence, Ukrainian military losses amounted to 315 persons (at least 100 killed and 215 wounded). 54 armoured vehicles were destroyed, including 7 tanks. The operation will end with defeating the enemy and reaching the state border,” said Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova declared that “Kyiv's barbaric attack in the Kursk region was an attempt to sow panic and show the appearance of activity against the backdrop of continuous failures of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”

“Moscow calls on the international community not to stand aside and to strongly condemn the criminal actions of the Kyiv regime,” said the Foreign Ministry spokeswoman.

Kyiv neither confirmed nor denied its involvement in the operation.