Younger voters shift to Trump: A Democratic disconnect?

After Donald Trump's decisive victory in the U.S. presidential election, both traditional and social media have been inundated with analyses attempting to explain the reasons for this outcome. Many opinions seek to identify a single cause for the Democrats' defeat or to blame a specific group. As a result, Trump’s victory has been attributed to various groups, including misogynists, racists, the Latino minority, Black men, or those voting for candidates other than Harris or Trump.

Young Americans, particularly men, have been pointed out as a group "responsible" for Trump's victory. However, evidence contradicts this conclusion: among voters aged 18-29, most voted for Kamala Harris. Donald Trump triumphed in the 45-64 age group, which was the most represented among voters.

Nonetheless, support for Trump among voters aged 18-29 has increased significantly since the previous elections in 2020, particularly among young men. More and more young people obtain their understanding of the world, including politics, from social media. Platforms like Elon Musk's X (formerly Twitter) and numerous YouTubers and streamers discussing political topics typically present a right-wing perspective. Of the 10 most popular streams on election night, nine had a right-wing stance, except for Hasan Piker (HasanAbi), who has consistently commented on the American political scene from a progressive viewpoint.

However, the right-wing slant of social media is not the sole reason for the Republicans' success. Some voices within the party itself suggest that Trump’s victory should be viewed in the context of the Democrats’ shortcomings. Kamala Harris’s campaign was aimed at voters described by many commentators as "imaginary": moderate Republicans who perceive Trump as a threatening figure. The belief that this strategy was flawed is reinforced by the fact that the same percentage of registered Republicans (94 percent) voted for Trump as in 2020. Meanwhile, the percentage of Republicans voting for a Democrat decreased from 6 to 5 percent.

A campaign targeting "moderately conservative" voters meant sidelining the very real progressive wing of the Democrats. Figures with significant popularity, such as Bernie Sanders and the media-savvy Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, were less prominent. As the campaign unfolded, vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz, who had implemented many widespread progressive reforms in Minnesota, where he serves as a senator, was also muted. His selection as Harris’s running mate initially garnered enthusiasm that helped her to close the gap with Trump in the polls, which had been unfavourable when Joe Biden was still in the race.

In a one-hour Instagram live on 6 November, Ocasio-Cortez discussed what she perceives as the issues facing the Democratic Party. She contends that her party has become disconnected from its natural voting base, the working class. The United States is plagued by significant social inequalities. Although Biden eventually managed to bring inflation down to a more typical level, this only slowed price increases rather than reducing them.

According to Ocasio-Cortez, the absence of proposals from the Democrats for individuals in challenging economic situations (e.g., increasing the minimum wage) leaves them with no incentive to vote for the party. In contrast, Donald Trump took advantage of their frustration. Though he did not promise effective reforms, he presented immigrants as a "scapegoat", blaming them for the problems faced by American workers.

Before her election to the House of Representatives, Ocasio-Cortez worked as a waitress, providing her with an insider's perspective on the working class's situation. She is not alone in attributing the Democrats’ electoral defeat to their lack of appeal to voters. Senator Bernie Sanders echoed her sentiments on Instagram, stating: "It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them. While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change. And they’re right."

Why do the Democrats lack proposals for the working class? Ocasio-Cortez noted that in the United States, elections are predominantly funded by large corporations. These entities are the least interested in improving workers' economic conditions. She highlighted that an alternative approach is possible, using her own career as a case study. She believes the Democratic Party must free itself from corporate sponsorship to regain the working-class votes, which are crucial in U.S. elections.