Could a Pantsir-S1 mistake lead to the Embraer-190 crash?

The Embraer-190, which crashed in Kazakhstan, displays numerous fragment marks, and recordings from inside the plane surfaced online shortly after the incident. The crew and passengers who survived are remarkably fortunate. It appears that the missile was small or approached from behind, causing its proximity fuse to trigger an explosion behind the plane, with only a portion of the fragments striking the aircraft.

If the missile had approached from the side or was larger, the aircraft would have disintegrated mid-air. Proximity fuses are designed to detonate the explosive warhead when close to the target (usually within a few metres). They use radio waves, infrared, or lasers to measure distance, and detonation occurs if the time between emitting a radio wave or laser beam and its reflection is short enough.

Considering the size of the missile's warhead, the destruction range can be several dozen or even several hundred metres. The hit aircraft is usually completely destroyed or severely damaged. In the case of the Embraer-190, it was likely the latter, causing the loss of part of the control surfaces, among other things.

Pantsir-S1 systems are deployed around Grozny. During the flight of the Embraer-190, these systems were supposed to fend off attacks by Ukrainian drones, like the Aeroprakt A-22 (a modified light aircraft). The Russian operator mistook the Embraer-190 for a drone. Burnt boosters resembling those from two-stage 57E6 rockets were found near Grozny.

The Russian Pantsir-S1 systems were introduced to the Russian Armed Forces only in 2012, even though development began in the 1990s. The Pantsirs were designed as a cheaper alternative to the 2K22 Tunguska artillery-missile system. Similar cost savings were sought in France, where the new system was mounted on a truck chassis to reduce costs.

Funding difficulties nearly halted the project, but support came from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which became interested in the promising system. Thanks to UAE investments, the project was completed, and the first Pantsir-S1 systems were delivered to foreign clients instead of Russia. The United Arab Emirates began using this system in the early 21st century.

Pantsir-S1 is equipped with two radars, each with a distinct role: one detects targets, while the other guides weaponry to them. Its arsenal includes two 30 mm automatic cannons capable of firing 2,500 rounds per minute and anti-aircraft missile launchers.

The gun armament allows for different types of ammunition and engages targets within a range of about 4 kilometres. The missile component comprises 12 launchers divided into two six sections, which can operate simultaneously. The guided missiles are radio-command guided and can hit targets up to 19 kilometres away, at altitudes up to 14 kilometres. They have a 20-kilogram fragmentation warhead containing 5 kilograms of explosive material, which is sufficient for a fighter jet, but possibly insufficient for a large transport or passenger aircraft.

Although the Pantsir-S1 works well against helicopters, it is ineffective against small drones like the Polish Warmate or modern cruise missiles such as the Storm Shadow, which feature advanced stealth technology. It is also evident that Russians still face significant challenges with object identification, as this is not the first incident of shooting down a passenger plane. Here, we can recall the case of flight MH-17 on July 17, 2014.