India's aerial strike on Pakistan escalates nuclear tensions
In response to the terrorist attack on April 22, during the night of May 6-7, India's air force attacked targets in Pakistan. The attack was considered an act of war by Pakistan. What capabilities do both countries have and what do we know about their nuclear arsenals?
On the night of May 6-7, 2025, the Indian air force attacked targets in Pakistan. According to India, the attacks targeted the infrastructure of terrorist organizations, and nine facilities were attacked during the raids.
Pakistan confirmed strikes on six targets, mostly located near the border with the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir. It also reported shooting down five Indian aircraft involved in the raids – three Rafales, one MiG-29, and one Su-30. India did not confirm these reports.
Besides its air force, as a form of pressure on its neighbour, India also used water – its flow from Indian territory to Pakistan was stopped for a few hours before the attacks.
The conflict between India and Pakistan has lasted for nearly 80 years (the first war over Kashmir started in 1947), taking various forms – from diplomatic actions through isolated incidents (such as the shooting down of planes), missile and air attacks, to limited territorial ground force skirmishes.
Its escalation causes particular concern due to the fact that – despite India's superiority – both countries are regional powers, with large armed forces, and both possess nuclear weapons.
Indian armed forces
India's armed forces, numbering about 1.1 million soldiers, are the second-largest army in the world after China's. Its armament is a mix of Soviet and Russian equipment – such as T-72 and T-90 tanks, indigenous designs (like the unsuccessful Arjun tank or Tejas aircraft), as well as Western equipment – like the Rafale aircraft ordered from France or South Korean K9 howitzers.
A key asset for India is its navy – the country builds modern destroyers and frigates through its own industry, has two aircraft carriers and is building a third one. Most importantly, alongside numerous older submarines, India independently constructs Arihant-type submarines with nuclear propulsion capable of carrying submerged-launched ballistic missiles.
Pakistan armed forces
Pakistan's army is smaller than India's – about 550,000 soldiers – yet Islamabad is intensively modernizing its armed forces, made possible by close cooperation with China.
Chinese weaponry currently constitutes the most modern equipment in the Pakistani armed forces. Alongside older American F-16s, there are JF-17 and J10 aircraft, MBT-3000 tanks and their local Haider variant, SH-15 self-propelled howitzers, and HQ-7, HQ-9, and HQ-16 air defence systems.
The most valuable component of the Pakistani navy is also Chinese – eight Zulfiquar and Tughril-class frigates. Despite technical issues plaguing Chinese equipment, Pakistan-China cooperation is thriving.
This cooperation is exemplified by Islamabad's recent orders – this time for Chinese submarines or additional frigates. In most cases, some of the equipment comes from China, and some – thanks to technology transfer – is locally produced by Pakistan's industry.
Nuclear arsenal of India and Pakistan
What most worries the world, however, is not so much the armament of both countries as their nuclear arsenals. Both began their nuclear programs in the '70s. India's first nuclear explosion occurred in 1974, and after a series of test explosions in 1998, India announced the end of its tests. The Indian nuclear arsenal is estimated to consist of just over 100 warheads.
Pakistan detonated its first nuclear charge in 1998 and has not joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Since then, it has expanded its arsenal to sizes comparable to or slightly larger than India's.
Both countries possess ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. In Pakistan's case, the pinnacle of its missile industry is the Shaheen-III intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), capable of striking targets up to about 4,500 kilometres away.
India's strength in this regard is the Agni missile family. The largest, Agni IV, has a range exceeding 5,000 kilometres. This means that the entire territories of India and Pakistan are within the reach of at least some of the nuclear delivery systems that both countries possess.
Nuclear delivery systems
Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is limited to ballistic and cruise missiles and an air component – nuclear bombs can be carried by Pakistani Mirage V and F-16 aircraft.
India holds the advantage, possessing a complete nuclear triad – alongside land-based ballistic and cruise missiles, India has aircraft capable of delivering nuclear bombs (Mirage 2000 and Jaguar), as well as submarines armed with ballistic missiles.
When could India and Pakistan use nuclear weapons?
India and Pakistan treat their nuclear arsenals differently. For New Delhi, nuclear weapons are a weapon of retaliation, while for Islamabad, they are a guarantee of survival. Therefore, larger and more powerful India adheres to the principle of a retaliatory strike, declaring it will not use its nuclear weapons first.
Pakistan, being smaller and weaker, has adopted a different strategy, likely unable to stop the Indian army in a full-scale but conventional conflict. This is why the Pakistani nuclear doctrine reserves the option of the first use of nuclear weapons.
