Kashmir conflict escalates as India suspends key water treaty
India's attack on Pakistan is another iteration of the conflict between these countries. The dispute over Kashmir has been ongoing since 1947. The region, divided by the Line of Control, remains one of the most militarized areas in the world, and recent events, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, threaten further escalation.
The origins of the conflict date back to the partition of British India in 1947, when the Maharaja of Kashmir, Hari Singh, faced with an invasion by tribes supported by Pakistan, signed an accession agreement to India. This triggered the first in a series of Indo-Pakistani wars (1947–1948, 1965, 1971, 1999) that shaped the division of Kashmir into the part administered by India (Jammu and Kashmir) and Pakistan (Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan). Over the decades, border clashes, Pakistan's support for separatist movements, and Indian military operations in the Kashmir Valley have continued.
The main causes of the dispute are religious differences—the Muslim majority of Kashmir is supported by Pakistan, while India considers the region an integral part of the country. The location of Kashmir is also significant, including control over the water resources of the Indus and Jhelum rivers. The geopolitical importance is heightened by proximity to China, which controls Aksai Chin, and the Siachen Glacier, the highest battleground in the world.
Recent years have brought new tensions. In 2019, India revoked the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir, triggering protests and worsening relations with Pakistan. The attack on tourists in Pahalgam in April 2025, attributed by India to fighters supported by Pakistan, led to a diplomatic crisis. India responded by closing the border, expelling Pakistani diplomats, and suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, crucial for Pakistani agriculture. Pakistan reacted by restricting trade, closing airspace to Indian airlines, and suspending the Shimla Agreement.
India stronger than Pakistan
Militarily, India surpasses Pakistan, with an army of 1.4 million soldiers, a defence budget of $81 billion (112 billion CAD), and advanced weaponry, including nuclear arms. Pakistan, with an army of 650,000 soldiers and a budget of $10.4 billion (14.4 billion CAD), relies on asymmetric tactics and nuclear deterrence, supported by China. Both countries avoid full-scale warfare due to the nuclear risk, but border incidents, such as the exchange of fire along the Line of Control in April 2025, maintain tensions.
The conflict has broader consequences. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty threatens a food crisis in Pakistan, and the closure of airspace by both countries disrupts international flight connections. The international community, including the U.S., China, and the UN, calls for de-escalation, but the lack of consensus complicates mediation. Kashmir remains a symbol of unresolved tensions, where religion, politics, and natural resources intertwine in one of the most enduring conflicts of the modern world.
