Kremlin prioritizes US talks over ending Ukraine conflict
The Kremlin is probably not interested in negotiations with the US that actually lead to a breakthrough in ending the war in Ukraine, according to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War.
- The Kremlin prefers bilateral talks with the US: Instead of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, Russia is focusing on relations with the United States.
- Russian narratives undermine support for Ukraine: The Kremlin repeats narratives aimed at weakening international support for Ukraine.
- No breakthroughs in negotiations: Russian officials downplay expectations for progress in talks, emphasizing that many technical issues remain unresolved.
Relations with the US are more important than peace talks
According to ISW analysts, the Kremlin is not interested in meaningful negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Instead, Russian authorities are focusing on bilateral talks with the US. "The Kremlin is recirculating existing narratives aimed at undermining support for Ukraine amid the negotiations in Riyadh and likely remains uninterested in conducting meaningful negotiations to end the war."
The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Ukrainians of being "well-bred Nazis," which is intended to justify Russian demands for the "denazification" of Ukraine. "These statements continue to signal to the domestic Russian audience that Russians should not expect a meaningful peace in Ukraine in the near term and support Kremlin condition-setting for a protracted war effort," the analysts say.
Questioning Ukraine's intentions
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused Ukraine of violating the proposed moratorium on energy attacks, even though the details of this agreement have not yet been established. Peskov told the media not to expect any breakthroughs as there is still much work to be done on technical issues.
Meanwhile, Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry, also tried to lower expectations for the talks, emphasizing that quick results should not be expected. ISW experts note that the Kremlin is trying to shape the expectations of Russian society, preferring talks with the US over negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
Is the Kremlin aiming to prolong the conflict?
ISW analysts point out that recent statements from Russian diplomats and officials suggest that the Kremlin might be aiming to prolong the conflict. "Russian officials at the bilateral meeting continued to signal the Kremlin's unwillingness to negotiate on the war in Ukraine and determination to achieve its maximalist objectives in Ukraine," experts emphasize.
Russia seems more interested in maintaining the current state of affairs, which may indicate a lack of desire to achieve lasting peace. In the face of a lack of details regarding the talks in Riyadh, the Kremlin may be trying to use this situation for its own political purposes.
