Kremlin's costly African expedition: Central African Republic's $800k weekly protection fee

The Central African Republic will pay Russia $800,000 per week for protection, starting in 2026. An "African Corps," under the control of the Russian Ministry of Defence, will operate in the country.

Members of the Wagner Group remain in the African country, protecting President Faustin-Archange Touadéra. In return, Russia has been allowed to exploit local resources, including gold and diamonds. However, the Wagner Group will be replaced by the African Corps, which the Kremlin will directly oversee. President Touadéra has until the end of 2025 to sign an agreement with Russia.

Russian soldiers continue to be stationed in the Central African Republic. Fighters from the Wagner Group have begun forming the African Corps. Russia is trying to increase the cost of their presence, which poses a significant challenge for a poor country like the Central African Republic. The question arises whether we are witnessing a qualitative change or merely a quantitative one. The Kremlin aims to impose solutions that would formally make President Touadéra's government subservient to Moscow, believes Dr. Wiesław Lizak, an expert in international relations in Africa and the Middle East from the Institute of New Europe.

The Central African Republic is one of the poorest countries in the world, receiving substantial support from international institutions, including those controlled by Western countries. Cooperation with Putin could have dire consequences for the country's people.

Close formal ties with Russia could prompt international institutions controlled by the West to closely monitor the Central African Republic's situation, particularly concerning the threat to Western interests posed by Russian expansion. A reevaluation of the financial and political support provided to this country can be expected, admits Dr. Wiesław Lizak.

An expert notes that the Central African Republic has remained unstable for many years. State structures are ineffective, and the country experiences internal upheavals that worsen the security situation. The last major crisis occurred in 2013, sparking an uprising against the then-president, which led to French intervention and international involvement. Another rebellion occurred in 2021.

At that time, the Russians played a crucial role in halting the offensive against President Touadéra's government, undoubtedly strengthening the relationship between the Central African Republic and Russia. The President recognized the effectiveness of the Russian fighters, says Dr. Lizak.

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Our interlocutor highlights that many African countries face dysfunctional structures, for which the West has not devised an effective strategy. In such situations, Russia offers an alternative to "stabilization."

This offer is accepted by both local regimes and parts of the societies. In the Central African Republic, from 2013 to 2016, France conducted a military operation aimed at stabilizing the internal situation. Although it managed to limit the conflict's escalation and ease tensions, it did not lead to lasting stabilization. The lack of further success meant that the Russian offer, which included sending mercenaries, aligned with societal expectations. Since 2017, Russia has strengthened its presence there, says the expert.

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According to Dr. Lizak, building influence in Africa is part of the Kremlin's strategy to affirm Russia's position as a superpower. Russians have been present on this continent since Soviet times. The Kremlin dispatched economic and military advisors, sold weapons, and formed alliances with various countries.

Some traditions of these relationships have persisted. Many African countries still possess weapons from that era. Russia, with its extensive military capabilities, can still offer weapons at lower prices than those produced in the West, emphasizes Dr. Lizak.

Russia aims to rebuild its international position, undermined after the annexation of Crimea and the Donbas conflict in 2014. Sanctions imposed on Moscow at the time resulted in its isolation. By expanding southward, the Kremlin has attempted to prompt the West to renew contacts.

In this context, the Russian intervention in Syria in November 2015 should be viewed. Without Moscow's support, the regime of Bashar al-Assad might not have survived until December 2024. Russia wants to demonstrate that without respecting its interests, international problems cannot be solved. It builds the image of a great power in this way, recalls the INE expert.

Another aspect of Russia's involvement concerns ousting the influence of countries losing ground on the African continent, such as France, which for many years held colonies, mainly in West Africa. However, between 2020 and 2023, countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger experienced political upheavals, resulting in a decline in French influence. It is no coincidence that Russians are appearing in these countries, as is the case in the Central African Republic.

It's not by chance that France has hardened its stance towards Russia, particularly concerning the war in Ukraine. This is part of a superpower rivalry to build spheres of influence, a process thought to have concluded after the Cold War, but geopolitical reality indicates such thinking persists among political elites, concludes Dr. Lizak.

It's also worth adding that the Soviet Union supported the decolonization of Africa and criticized colonialism, primarily associated with Western European countries. However, the question remains whether the Kremlin's current policy is a new form of colonial approach towards African countries. This could have consequences for Europe, as the Kremlin might influence migratory flows from this region.