Trump and Zelensky meet in Vatican: Crimea peace talks in spotlight

Let’s recall, the meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky took place before Pope Francis's funeral. According to the White House, the conversation was very productive. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke in a similar tone. In his opinion, it was a very symbolic meeting that, as he added, could prove to be historic.

"A good meeting. We managed to discuss a lot one-on-one. We hope for a result from all the things that were said. Protection of the lives of our people. A complete and unconditional ceasefire. A reliable and lasting peace that will prevent a recurrence of war," wrote Zelensky in the Telegram messenger.

After the meeting on social media, the American president threatened to impose additional sanctions on Russia. "There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days. It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through "Banking" or "Secondary Sanctions?" Too many people are dying!!!" wrote Trump on the Truth Social platform.

Already on Sunday, when asked by journalists, Trump revealed that together with the Ukrainian president, they briefly touched on the issue of Crimea. He again stated that the seizure of the peninsula by Russia happened during Barack Obama’s administration. When asked if Zelensky is ready to give up Crimea, he responded that he "thinks so."

Interestingly, before the meeting at the Vatican, Trump gave an interview to "The Atlantic" magazine. He indicated that he is considering clear support for Ukraine, although he noted that this does not necessarily mean siding with President Volodymyr Zelensky. "I've had a hard time with Zelensky. You saw that over here when he was sitting right in that chair, when he just couldn't get it" — said Trump, referring to their public spat in the White House.

According to former Polish ambassador to Kyiv, Jan Piekło, Trump and Zelensky simply do not like each other and do not get along. "In July 2019, Donald Trump called newly elected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He asked him to launch an investigation into Hunter Biden, Joe Biden's son, who was on the board of the Ukrainian company Burisma. Trump wanted to prove that Biden was involved in corruption in Ukraine. Zelensky did not comply with Trump’s request at the time. And the American president does bear grudges," says Jan Piekło.

However, according to the former Polish ambassador to Kyiv, more important than the next interview was the tête-à-tête meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky at the Vatican. According to Jan Piekło, it could be groundbreaking.

"It is a powerful message. Both were aware that the meeting at the Vatican could be key to resolving contentious issues. It's worth noting that in the funeral ceremonies, there was no Moscow Patriarch, and only Cyril of Rus' was present, along with his envoy. This can be perceived as Russia dismissing the funeral ceremonies. Most importantly, after the weekend, Trump returned to the rhetoric where he criticizes Putin and doesn't rule out imposing sanctions. And he suggested that the issue of rearming Ukraine is opening up again," says Jan Piekło.

Meanwhile, retired Col. Piotr Lewandowski notes that on one hand, we still see the naivety of Trump's policy. "We didn’t know whether to laugh or cry when the American president said that Putin respects him and wouldn’t deceive. He didn’t respect Obama; he didn’t respect Biden. And me, Trump, he respects. Suppose someone is building a Russian policy foundation on this. In that case, we have such, and not other, negotiations in ending the war," says Lewandowski, a veteran of military missions in Afghanistan and Iraq.

In his assessment, on the other hand, Russia underestimated Washington. "The White House won’t be fooled. The Trump administration won't allow itself to be manipulated in such a blatant way. We've reached a point where Washington is starting to open its eyes. Trump doesn't have around him the people he had during his first term in the White House. Now he has associates who share plans for an attack on the Houthis in Yemen via the Signal messenger. There is no quality there. But even they are opening their eyes," assesses the former military man.

According to Jan Piekło, if Zelensky agreed to give Crimea to Russia, it would be political suicide for him.

"And for any Ukrainian leader who would be in his place. In the case of the peninsula, another context is important, however. Turkey never agreed to the annexation of Crimea. And it consistently supports the existing borders. Ankara controls the Bosporus and doesn’t want to allow Putin to take control of the strait. That’s why Turkey doesn’t agree for Crimea to be Russian. As the strongest NATO country in that region, it has a voice in the White House. It’s not at all said that the United States will agree to this. Certainly, neither Kyiv nor Europe will agree with the Russian demand," says Jan Piekło, former Polish ambassador in Kyiv.

And as he adds, perhaps there will be some formula where Crimea and not only the peninsula would be managed by an international agency—UN or OSCE.

"And in the meantime, negotiations would last on the further fate of the peninsula. Unfortunately, due to Russian policy, Crimea's population composition has changed. Crimean Tatars are persecuted and mostly left. The peninsula has been Russified against the law. A large group of people came there who are tasked with being Russians in Crimea," reminds Piekło.

Meanwhile, retired Col. Piotr Lewandowski notes that Ukraine doesn’t have military capabilities to regain Crimea. "From time to time, Ukrainian forces attack the peninsula. Russian troops are treated there as occupying forces. If Ukraine renounced its rights, it would no longer have the ability to attack Russian forces in Crimea. The issue of the Crimean Peninsula will be one of the most difficult in these negotiations," assesses the former military man.