Trump's LNG power play: Reshaping global energy dynamics

Donald Trump is continuing efforts to make America an energy powerhouse. By changing the law on his first day in office, he unlocked the potential for increased mining and the construction of new gas fields and terminals. The USA plans to double current LNG (liquefied natural gas) production by 2030. Now it's time for new contracts and strengthening market positions.

To achieve this, Trump equally uses threats and pressure. By imposing high tariffs on almost the entire world and then suspending them for 90 days, Trump signaled that countries should use that time to offer something that would satisfy the USA. Key agreements will revolve around contracts for gas, armaments, or raw materials.

The demands of the US president are constantly increasing. The European Union assured that it is willing to increase purchases of American LNG at the expense of current volumes imported from Russia. Despite this, Trump imposed tariffs on Europe reaching 20 percent.

During negotiations, Ursula von der Leyen proposed a "zero-for-zero" customs agreement on cars and other industrial goods. However, when Trump was asked about such a solution at a White House press conference, he stated that it was insufficient.

In his opinion, the EU would have to commit to purchasing energy from the USA worth $350 billion (487 billion CAD), which would cover the entire trade deficit calculated by the Trump administration (although in reality, the EU's trade surplus in goods with the USA is about 208 billion CAD).

Considering that in 2024 American gas constituted 45 percent of the entire EU import, and European energy purchases were valued at $13 billion (18 billion CAD), following Trump's demands, the EU would have to increase orders nearly 27-fold.

Currently, the Union imports gas from countries like Qatar, Algeria, the USA, and Russia. The EU climate policy assumes a gradual reduction of gas consumption in favour of renewable energy sources. Despite this, Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said in an interview with "The Financial Times" that "there is potential for us to buy more LNG from the United States, but of course, it has to be done on terms consistent with our (green - editor's note) transformation."

Trump's strategy is not limited to Europe. LNG is also a lever for other countries. Trump reportedly already discussed large purchases of American LNG with the interim leader of South Korea, Han Duck-soo, as reported last week by Bloomberg.

Japan has reportedly aligned itself for American energy as well. So far, the main suppliers to this country were Australia with 26.6 million tonnes (41 percent), Malaysia with 10.2 million tonnes (15.8 percent), and Russia with 6.3 million tonnes (9.7 percent). Meanwhile, the USA provided only 5.8 million tonnes (9 percent) of LNG.

Larger gas purchases from the United States have also been announced by Indonesia, Thailand, and Taiwan. The latter has declared that within the next decade it could triple the share of American LNG (from the current 10 percent to 30 percent). That's not all. As assessed by Taiwan's Minister of Economic Affairs, Kuo Jyh-Huei, in a conversation with Bloomberg, state entities could purchase goods worth $6 billion (8 billion CAD) from Americans.

Both Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have also announced that they are considering investments in American LNG facilities in Alaska. This is a $44 (61 billion CAD) billion project, supported by Donald Trump.

Donald Trump's plans go much further. The United States still holds the status of the world's largest LNG exporter. In 2024, the export of this resource from the USA reached 88.3 million tonnes.

As assessed by Dr. Szymon Kardas, an expert from the European Council on Foreign Relations, the Americans maintain sanctions against Russia, including those covering Western technologies, for good reason. These effectively buried Moscow's pre-war ambitions in LNG production. Let's recall that according to the assumptions of the Russian Federation's Energy Strategy until 2035 (a document from 2020), Russia was expected to produce between 80 and even 140 million tonnes of LNG annually, of which only in the Arctic - up to 91 million tonnes.

"Today's competitors for American LNG are Qataris, Australians, and a few countries in Africa, but not Russians," explains Kardas.

True, Russian LNG is still purchased by some European countries, but it cannot be re-exported further in the world due to EU sanctions. Additionally, the largest recipients of Russian LNG, China and India, are limiting import.

"The Russians have hit a wall. They have Yamal LNG in Europe operating at maximum parameters and small installations controlled by Gazprom in Portovaya and the terminal in Vysotsk owned by Novatek. This year marks the end of the pipeline gas supply contract through Lithuania to the Kaliningrad Oblast. If Vilnius does not extend it, the cut-off enclave will have to be supplied by Portovaya LNG, occupying all its capabilities. Another option is Arctic LNG-2. The first line operates at only 25 percent, producing just 6.6 million tonnes. Sanctions on methane tankers effectively paralyze this project as well," calculates Dr. Kardas.

As the expert emphasizes, even if Trump eased sanctions against Moscow today, the Russians would have difficulty maintaining growth potential.

The Russians have essentially already reached their maximum. It will take a lot of time before they invent their own technology for LNG. The USA has outperformed Russia in this field - emphasizes Kardas.

However, for Trump, Russian gas may still be attractive. As we wrote in money.pl, on the American side, there have been suggestions that the USA could engage in gas cooperation with Russia. In February 2025, "The Wall Street Journal" reported that Miami-based financier Stephen P. Lynch is trying to acquire shares in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. There have been voices suggesting that American control over this project could be a significant asset in peace negotiations with Russia. It was later confirmed by Sergey Lavrov that talks between the USA and Russia about resuming supplies through Nord Stream were taking place.

From a purely business perspective, such cooperation could be beneficial for both sides. The Americans would take cheaper gas from the Yamal region and western Siberia from the Russians and sell it with their own label in the EU. Control over Nord Stream shares would reduce the costs of gas transport and LNG supplies. Meanwhile, Russia would earn as an intermediary.

However, this is not the only gas pipeline that interests Trump. As reported by "The Guardian" on Saturday, the USA "demands control" over a crucial gas pipeline transmitting Russian gas through Ukraine to Western Europe as part of a minerals agreement being prepared.

It concerns the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhhorod pipeline, which carried natural gas from western Siberia through Ukraine to Europe. In December 2022, it was damaged as a result of an explosion.

According to "The Guardian," the latest American document includes a demand for the US International Development Finance Corporation to take control of it. This would confirm the thesis that Trump is ready to also earn from the transport of gas from Russia to Europe.

It remains an open question as to what the European Union's response will be. Brussels plans a complete departure from Russian gas. They are also checking legal options that would allow European companies to terminate long-term contracts for Russian gas without paying huge contractual penalties - wrote "The Financial Times" on Tuesday.

However, within the EU itself, there are countries - like Slovakia and Hungary - that push for further imports of raw materials from Russia and a return to former dealings with Moscow.

Some European companies seem willing to collaborate with Russia. Didier Ollo, vice president of the French Engie, points out that Russia could supply about 60-70 billion cubic metres of gas annually, which would meet 20-25 percent of the Union's demand, instead of 40 percent before the war outbreak. A similar opinion was expressed by Patrick Pouyanné, president of the also French company TotalEnergies. If Trump managed to gain control over the mentioned pipelines, the USA could profit greatly from it.