Is a frozen front the calm before a new storm in Ukraine?
The American Institute for the Study of War warns that a potential freezing of the conflict in Ukraine does not rule out future Russian attacks. Is this just a temporary peace?
Key information
- ISW: Freezing the conflict does not rule out future Russian attacks.
- Russia: May seek to increase its territorial gains.
- Front line: The current situation does not provide Ukraine with strategic depth.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in its latest report, warns that a potential agreement to freeze the front line in Ukraine does not rule out future Russian attacks. The current situation leaves parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions outside Russian control.
ISW analysts indicate that Russia may aim to increase its territorial gains, especially if a ceasefire agreement includes a moratorium on the delivery of Western weapons to Ukraine. A high-ranking Russian diplomat emphasised that "the situation on the ground will dictate the next moves."
Lack of strategic depth for Ukraine
The current front line does not provide Ukraine with territorial strategic depth, making it difficult to defend effectively against renewed Russian aggression. Russian forces are in close proximity to key cities like Zaporizhia and Kharkiv.
ISW assesses that the Kremlin might exploit any ceasefire that includes restrictions on American arms deliveries to Ukraine to prepare for renewed aggression. Russia may tactically ease its claims on Ukrainian territories to gain other concessions from the USA.
What next for the conflict in Ukraine?
The situation in Ukraine remains tense, and a potential freezing of the conflict may only be a temporary solution. In the face of possible future attacks, Ukraine must be prepared for various scenarios.
