Putin outmanoeuvres Trump with partial Ukraine ceasefire
Vladimir Putin applied pressure on Donald Trump by agreeing only to a partial ceasefire in Ukraine. Dr Jamie Shea, a former NATO official, assesses that Putin won the first round of talks.
Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, effectively took advantage of the situation in which U.S. President Donald Trump needed quick results. He agreed only to a partial ceasefire, meaning that fighting in Ukraine will continue. Dr Jamie Shea, a former high-ranking NATO official, emphasised in a conversation with PAP that the Tuesday phone call did not end successfully for Trump.
He pressed for a 30-day total and unconditional truce, claiming to be making significant progress in this regard. Instead, Putin agreed only to the absolute minimum: a ceasefire concerning attacks on energy infrastructure, much of which Russia has already destroyed—stated the former NATO official.
Shea notes that Russia currently feels in a position of advantage, and Putin conditions a full ceasefire on meeting additional conditions, such as halting military aid to Ukraine. Trump now knows that he does not have the power to quickly end the war (…) but, as is typical for Trump, he will try to present this in a positive light, said Shea.
Despite difficulties, Kyiv has improved relations with Washington, agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire. Shea emphasises that Ukraine cannot be blamed for the modest negotiation outcomes. If Russia indeed halts attacks on infrastructure, Ukraine will be able to repair part of the electrical grid.
Challenges for Trump
Trump faces the challenge of achieving a full ceasefire without making concessions to Russia. Shea points out that Trump will need to find a way to pressure Putin to abandon his maximalist stance. Additionally, normalising relations with Moscow will be difficult if Putin remains inflexible.
“By giving the minimum, Putin avoided humiliating Trump and kept him engaged in peace talks, even if they do not lead anywhere quickly. But Trump will have to face big problems," stated Shea, as quoted by PAP.
Dr Jamie Shea, former NATO spokesperson, emphasises that the first round of negotiations was favourable for Putin, who leveraged Trump's pressure for quick results. The question remains, whether Trump can achieve a fair and lasting peace. Shea, now affiliated with the University of Exeter and the think tank Chatham House, underscores that the situation requires further action and a thoughtful strategy.
