Belarus' electoral spectacle: Lukashenka's power play

- We absolutely cannot speak of elections in any genuine sense. It is a hollow electoral spectacle devoid of content and meaning from our point of view. Of course, for Lukashenka, it is an important signal of strength and dominance over the country - said Kamil Kłysiński from the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) in an interview with PAP.

He added, "Lukashenka has achieved his goal: he rules the country, controls all processes, society, and elites, and the security sector is utterly loyal to him. He also has the backing of Russia." These are all aspects necessary for maintaining totalitarian power, as this is what we are currently dealing with in Belarus, the expert noted.

- Therefore, from Lukashenka's point of view, it is a successful project: he will simply "re-elect himself" as president. However, when it comes to any prospects for Belarus, it is a very bleak situation: it shows how far the country is currently sinking in terms of politics, economy, values, and any norms of the civilised world and European standards - he continued.

Kłysiński noted that the Belarusian authorities "occasionally repeat that they are in Europe", although recently this has not been emphasised much. Instead, there is more talk about Eurasia and the eastern direction of cooperation, which also "says a lot about the situation and the ideology of the Belarusian regime" - the OSW expert stressed.

Sunday's "election" is almost entirely directed at the "domestic market" and serves as a signal to Russia that "Lukashenka is worthy of continued support, that he can conduct an effective re-election and that no one is capable of opposing him" - the expert explained, emphasising that "Russia appreciates this, as similar principles prevail there."

Kłysiński also believes that "the election" is an element of disinformation against the West. He noted that some independent Belarusian experts feared that Lukashenka would attempt to "sell" this election to the West as a sort of opportunity to start a dialogue.

- I do not see such serious attempts from the Belarusian authorities. I assume that Lukashenka at this stage does not want dialogue with the West. There are many indications of this: for instance, what is happening in Polish-Belarusian relations regarding Andrzej Poczobut. The low quality of the signals sent to the West and their provocative nature indicate that a hybrid war is being waged against us. Also, attempts to engage in dialogue with us and Lukashenka's statements about wanting to talk to the West are part of the hybrid war; this is disinformation - Kłysiński said.

The expert does not expect any signs of social opposition in connection with the election. - The society is intimidated, people want to survive, the repression is extensive. One can be detained for practically anything. This is a totalitarian state. Organising a protest in an authoritarian state, as Belarus was until 2020-2021, was still possible, as we saw in 2020, which surprised the authorities. In a totalitarian state, it is much more challenging - he explained.

Since autumn 2024, another wave of repression has been observed in Belarus clearly linked to the "election". - It's about additional intimidation, tightening the screws. People were detained, summoned for questioning, and searches were conducted - he listed.

According to Kłysiński, the recent pardon by Lukashenka of about 200 political prisoners was also related to the election. - This is an element of the regime's "pre-election campaign". It is pretence and disinformation, primarily towards its own citizens. Lukashenka wanted to show the regime's human face: those pardoned included sick people and those with small children - he added.

The pardon might also have aimed at causing confusion within the Belarusian opposition in exile. - And it indeed succeeded somewhat. The regime provoked a debate within the opposition about whether to react to this - he added.

However, he pointed out that Western elites, including Polish experts, realise that this is just a façade, and the regime has no intention of stopping the repression or releasing all political prisoners.

The OSW expert did not rule out that after the "election," the level of repression in the country might slightly reduce because "the regime will stabilise anew, and Lukashenka will confirm his power." According to Kłysiński, this will only be a temporary change in the dynamics of repression.

- The aim of Lukashenka's regime is to maintain power, which in the current conditions means holding tight control over society and maintaining the totalitarian model. And that will be preserved - he stressed.

- Therefore, these elections are a mere political spectacle and will not be a turning point, the expert summarised.

The Belarusian opposition calls the planned election a "non-election", emphasising that in a country immersed in repression, there can be no talk of any democratic process.