Conclave 2025: Who will succeed Pope Francis?

Pope Francis died on 21st April 2025. According to canon law, the conclave must commence at the earliest 15 days after his passing. The cardinal electors will assemble in the Sistine Chapel between 6th and 11th May 2025 to elect a new pope.

The conclave (from Latin cum clave—"with a key") is the process by which a new pope is elected by the cardinals of the Catholic Church. While today it is associated with a strict ritual in the Sistine Chapel, its history is rife with dramatic turns, political tensions, and reforms that have shaped the contemporary rules for electing the Bishop of Rome.

In the early centuries of Christianity, popes were elected by the clergy and faithful of Rome. It was only in 1059 that Pope Nicholas II introduced a reform granting the right to elect popes exclusively to cardinals. However, the absence of precise procedures often led to prolonged elections and interference from secular rulers.

The best-known example is the conclave following the death of Clement IV in 1268. The meeting in Viterbo lasted 33 months, making it the longest conclave in the history of the Catholic Church. The cardinals, divided politically, could not reach an agreement. Eventually, the impatient townspeople locked them in the palace, sealed the exits, limited meals, and even removed the building's roof to speed up the decision. In the end, they chose Teobaldo Visconti, who assumed the name Gregory X.

In response to the chaos of previous elections, Pope Gregory X convened a council in Lyons in 1274, during which he introduced the Ubi periculum bull. This document established the rules of the conclave, including requiring cardinals to remain locked in until a pope was elected and limiting their contact with the outside world. These reforms aimed to accelerate the electoral process and limit external influences.

Over the centuries, the rules of the conclave have been modified, but the basic principles have remained unchanged. The modern conclave takes place in the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican and involves cardinals under the age of 80. The election of the pope requires a two-thirds majority. After each vote, the ballots are burned, and the colour of the smoke signals the result: black indicates no election, white signifies the election of a new pope.

The conclave is one of the most mysterious and yet regulated events within the Catholic Church. Although its roots go back to the Middle Ages, contemporary rules are the result of many reforms and adjustments to the spiritual and organisational realities of the Apostolic See. So, how is the pope elected?

In the 2025 conclave, participation will be limited to cardinals under 80 years of age, following regulations introduced by Paul VI and reaffirmed by John Paul II. For the current conclave, about 120 people are eligible to vote. Cardinals from around the world gather in Vatican City, residing in the Domus Sanctae Marthae, and daily proceed to the Sistine Chapel to participate in voting.

The duration can vary depending on circumstances. How long is the conclave? — theoretically, it can conclude on the first day, but it usually lasts from a few days to a week. In the case of strong divisions or a lack of a clear favourite, it might extend, although the longest conclave in history lasted 33 months. Contemporary regulations limit this duration by reducing meals and accommodations after a certain time without a decision.

Each day, up to four votes are held — two in the morning and two in the afternoon. Each cardinal writes the name of their candidate on a slip and places it in a special vessel. The votes are then counted. If no candidate receives a two-thirds majority, the ballots are burned, and the smoke rising from the Sistine Chapel chimney informs the faithful: black smoke indicates no election; white smoke — the election of a new pope.

The newly elected pope is asked if he accepts the election and then chooses a name by which he will be known. He dons the white cassock and appears on the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica, where he announces, Habemus Papam! — "We have a pope!".

The conclave is not just the procedure for electing a new pope — it's also an event marked by centuries-old traditions and countless symbols, giving it a unique, almost mystical character. While the Apostolic See strives to maintain the solemnity and spiritual dimension of the process, over the centuries, many rituals and... superstitions have developed around it.

One of the oldest and most strictly adhered-to traditions is the total isolation of cardinals from the outside world, ensuring the election of a new pope is conducted in an atmosphere of prayer and focus, without the influence of politics, media, or public opinion. Any attempt to leak information from within the conclave is met with the threat of excommunication, underscoring the importance of secrecy.

Though today the colour of the smoke from the Sistine Chapel chimney results from special chemical mixtures, for years it has been interpreted almost as a sign from heaven. Black smoke (fumata nera) means no agreement, while white smoke (fumata bianca) signifies the election of a pope. Traditionally, this is accompanied by the ringing of the basilica bells, dispelling any doubts.

In the history of the Catholic Church, there are numerous anecdotes of unusual behaviours during the conclave. Some cardinals reportedly brought their own chefs, while others concealed slips with their preferred candidate in their sleeves. During the longest conclave in Viterbo, cardinals were even deprived of their roofs to force a decision!

Each participant in the conclave takes a solemn oath of secrecy and loyalty to the Church’s principles before the first ballot. It is one of the most solemn moments of the entire procedure.

All of this makes the 2025 conclave not only a decision about the future of the Catholic Church but also a continuation of a centuries-old tradition that fascinates the faithful and observers worldwide.

The death of Pope Francis, whose birth name was Jorge Mario Bergoglio SJ, has paved the way for one of the most significant events in the life of the Catholic Church — the election of his successor. Although, according to the rules of the conclave, no candidate officially declares their candidacy, observers of church life and Vatican experts have been speculating for months about who has the best chance of becoming the new pope. Who will be the pope after Francis? Here are the most frequently mentioned names regarding the 2025 conclave candidates.

1. Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana)

One of the most recognisable hierarchs from Africa, known for his work in social justice, ecology, and interreligious dialogue. His election would be historic — he would be the first pope from Africa.

2. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy)

Archbishop of Bologna and President of the Italian Bishops' Conference. Close to the spiritual vision of Pope Francis, he combines concern for the poor with openness to new social challenges, and he has been considered a "papabile" for several years.

3. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)

Former Archbishop of Manila, now serving as the Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelisation. His asset is not only his vast popularity in Asia but also his charisma and ability to speak to younger generations of believers.

4. Cardinal Christoph Schönborn (Austria)

Though nearing the age limit, some observers still see him as a potential candidate due to his considerable theological experience and understanding of the universal Church.

It's important to note that history remembers cases when the new pope was chosen from among the so-called "dark horses" — cardinals who did not appear in media speculations before the conclave. Such was the case with Jorge Mario Bergoglio SJ, whose election in 2013 surprised the world.

Real candidates for the new pope are cardinal electors, that is, clergy under 80 years of age participating in the 2025 conclave. Among them, names that can count on wide support among the electors already stand out. Who could become the new pope?

The election of the pope is not solely a matter of spirituality — it is also about church politics, geography, social sensitivity, and personality. Cardinals will be looking for a candidate who:

• will continue the direction of Pope Francis, being open, humble, and socially active,
• will address the global challenges of the Church — including the decline in the number of believers in Europe and North America and the dynamic growth of Christianity in Asia and Africa,
• will be able to unite different currents in the Church, from conservatives to reformers.

At the top of unofficial "papabili" lists are:

• Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy) – regarded as the spiritual heir of Pope Francis. Warm in his message, socially engaged, and experienced in Vatican diplomacy.
• Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) – one of the most beloved cardinals, representing the dynamically growing Asian Church. Charismatic and media-savvy.
• Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana) – a symbol of the changing geography of the Church. An African candidate with a strong moral standing, known for his involvement in environmental issues and social justice.
• Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourg) – a European with broad support from progressive cardinals, active in matters of youth and synodality.

Yes. The history of the conclave knows instances when a candidate outside the media lists won — like Jorge Mario Bergoglio SJ in 2013. Cardinals may at the last moment unite around a name that did not previously appear in speculations but inspires trust and unites different factions.

In the 2025 conclave, important roles can also be played by cardinals from Poland, South America, or Canada — as negotiators, building "vote blocs" for favourites.

The election of a new pope is a moment that resonates far beyond the borders of the Vatican and the Catholic Church itself. It is an event of global importance — both spiritually and socially, culturally, and politically. Why is the 2025 conclave so important and what might its consequences be?

The death of Pope Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio SJ, closes an era that for many was a time of greater openness, dialogue, and care for the world's peripheries. His successor will face the question: continuation or change? Will the Church continue on Francis's path, or will it return to a more conservative model of papacy?

The new pope will influence the Church's response to the major challenges of the 21st century:

• a crisis of faith in Europe and North America,
• the increasing significance of the Church in Asia and Africa,
• growing internal tensions within the Catholic community — between reformers and traditionalists,
• ethical and bioethical issues, such as euthanasia, divorce, LGBTQ+ rights, and women's ordination.

The pope is not only a religious leader but also the head of the Apostolic See — a subject of international law. In times of global crises, such as wars, climate change, and migration, the voice of the pope holds political and moral significance. Whoever becomes the pope in 2025 will influence the direction of interreligious dialogue, the stance on Russia, China, or the Middle East, and actions in defending human rights.

For over a billion Catholics, the election of a new pope is also a new spiritual authority, a guide in faith, and the shepherd of the universal Church. The choice made by cardinals within the 2025 conclave will impact how pastoral care, liturgy, and Church teaching will be shaped in the coming decades.