Glaciers face millennial recovery as 3°C warming looms

• Warming by 3°C may have a lasting impact on glaciers.
• Smaller glaciers may take hundreds of years to rebuild.
• Polar glaciers could require millennia for regeneration.

Researchers from the University of Bristol and the University of Innsbruck have conducted research showing the effects of a 3°C temperature rise on glaciers. Even if the climate begins to cool, the smaller glaciers may take hundreds of years to regenerate, while polar glaciers might need millennia.

The researchers presented a scenario in which global temperatures temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold, reaching 3°C before receding. In this situation, glaciers could lose 16% more mass compared to a warming of 1.5°C, as targeted by the Paris Agreement.

Prof. Fabien Maussion from the University of Bristol emphasises that the current climate policy predicts a temperature increase of 3°C.

The trajectory of the current climate policy is leading the planet toward a 3°C increase in temperature. Maussion points out that such a scenario poses a significantly greater threat to glaciers compared to one in which the temperature rise is limited to 1.5°C.

Dr Lilian Schuster highlights the importance of meltwater from glaciers for local communities. "If glaciers regrow, they start storing water again as ice -- and that means less water flows downstream. We call this effect 'trough water', in contrast to peak water. We found that roughly half of the basins we studied will experience some form of trough water beyond 2100," the researcher emphasised.

Exceeding the 1.5°C threshold could seal the loss of glaciers for entire centuries. Prof. Maussion warns that many damages may be irreversible even if temperatures eventually decrease.

"The longer we delay emissions cuts, the more we burden future generations with irreversible change," he adds.