Russian superweapon falters: Patriot defences shield Kyiv

The attack carried out by the Russians on Kyiv on 7 October 2024 was intended to hit streets crowded with people leaving shelters after the alarm. However, the Russian plans did not succeed because the Kinzhal missiles—once thought to be unstoppable—are now easily targeted by the old American Patriot systems.

On the morning of 7 October, Greenwich Mean Time, the Russians attacked the Ukrainian capital with two types of weapons. First, 32 drones from the Shahed family arrived. Although they were shot down, the attack triggered an alarm. Once the threat was eliminated by Ukrainian air defence, two Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles approached.

The attack was potentially very dangerous. Since the Kinzhal travels at hypersonic speed (above Mach 5), the time from its detection to the moment it strikes the target is too short for civilians to take cover in shelters. As noted by the Defence 24 service, in this case, the Kinzhals could have struck when the streets of Kyiv were full of people leaving shelters after repelling the Shahed attack.

For this reason, Ukraine announces an alarm not only when there is information about incoming Kinzhals, but also when it is detected that their carriers—MiG-31K aircraft carrying one Kh-47 missile under the fuselage—are taking off from airports in Russia or Belarus.

In the first year of the war, Russians could attack Ukraine with Kinzhals with a very high probability of success. The Kinzhal moves so fast that, for older anti-aircraft systems, detecting and tracking the missile can be problematic.

The short reaction time of anti-aircraft systems also means that not all systems can work out the data needed to launch counter-missiles. Therefore, in 2022, Ukrainians admitted that destroying incoming Kinzhals with the anti-aircraft weapons they had at that time was impossible.

The situation radically changed with the delivery of Western anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine, including the MIM-104 Patriot. A particularly glaring failure for Russia was an attack carried out on the night of 15-16 May 2023, when out of 18 missiles fired at Kyiv (including six Kinzhals) and cruise missiles, the Ukrainian defence shot down all 18.

Also, in the case of the attack on 7 October 2024, both Kinzhals were destroyed, although—due to their high speed—the debris from their interception fell on populated areas, causing insignificant damage.

Unknown effects resulted from an attack with a third Kinzhal, which had a completely different target—the airfield in Starokostiantyniv in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. According to Ukrainian sources, the Russian missile fell "in the vicinity" of the airfield. This base is where, according to unofficial reports, Ukrainian F-16s are temporarily stationed.