Russia's missile ambitions: Fresh insights from Ukrainian intel
The Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) has provided information on the estimated production of medium-range ballistic missiles, known as Oreshnik or RS-26 Rubezh, which Russia may accomplish within a year. This type of missile was used by the Russians in the attack on Dnipro on 21 November. It was during this time that the world became aware of the Kremlin's latest weapon. The Russians, on the other hand, have announced plans to enhance the power of the Oreshnik missiles.
The Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) has addressed Russian capabilities in launching and producing medium-range ballistic missiles. According to its representatives, the Kremlin can launch them from two locations within its territory. These are "Kapustin Yar", the 4th State Central Interservice Testing Range (SCMP) of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation in the Astrakhan Oblast, which belongs to the Strategic Rocket Forces of the Armed Forces of Russia, and the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk Oblast, which is approximately 800 kilometres north of Moscow.
Ukrainian intelligence on Oreshnik missiles
HUR also reports that Russia, based on its experience in producing intercontinental ballistic missiles RS-24 Yars, may manufacture up to 25 medium-range ballistic missiles annually. However, the Ukrainian service Defence Express points out that it remains unclear whether the production capacity is fully concentrated solely on the new missiles or if the Russians are continuing to produce other intercontinental ballistic missiles, including Yars missiles.
Similarly, in a conversation with WP Tech, military analyst Dawid Kamizela from the Defence Zone portal recently shared his opinion. He said: "The Russians, regarding the production of ballistic missiles of various classes with longer ranges, are self-sufficient for rather straightforward reasons. Similar to countries like the United States or China, their strategic deterrence depends on this weaponry." According to him, the serial production of such Oreshnik missiles would amount to a few, maybe a dozen or so units. "This seems impractical because, in the case of conventional warheads, the cost-effectiveness ratio would be absurdly unprofitable," he noted.
According to Dawid Kamizela, if we are discussing conventional warheads - not nuclear warheads - similar effectiveness, with significantly lower production costs, can be achieved using cruise missiles such as Kalibr or Kh-101. The Russians apparently do not concern themselves with the cost-effectiveness ratio, as besides announcing the mass production of Oreshnik missiles, they are also not ruling out work on extending their range.
When journalists asked about the possibility of increasing Oreshnik's capabilities, Yury Borisov, head of Roscosmos, stated, "We will do everything the Ministry of Defence demands." Earlier, he had assured that Roscosmos can deliver Oreshnik missiles to the Russian Ministry of Defence in any required quantities.
"As for high-precision systems, we have already increased the production of this type of weapon several times over the last two years or more. As for Oreshnik, we have all the necessary resources to meet the Ministry's demands," Borisov said during an interview given to the Russian journalist Pavel Zarubin.
