Sea levels to surge despite achieving climate goals
The climate catastrophe will affect everyone on Earth. As the latest research suggests, even if we limit global warming to 1.5°C, sea levels will continue to rise. Experts warn that systemic changes are crucial to mitigate the consequences of climate change.
An increase in the global average temperature by 1.5°C compared with the pre-industrial era could have serious and often irreversible consequences for the environment and people's lives worldwide. According to Science Alert, even if we achieve the ambitious target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, sea levels will keep rising. Research indicates that the rate of sea level rise has doubled over the last thirty years and could double again by 2100, reaching about 1 centimetre per year.
Losses reaching 1 trillion dollars (880 billion euros) annually
Professor Chris Stokes from Durham University highlights that a scenario where humanity manages to halt the rampant process of climate warming at 1.5°C would be a significant achievement that could save the planet. However, he states that at this stage, we remain unable to stop the process of rising sea levels. Without suitable protections, such as sea walls, an additional 20 centimetres rise in sea levels by 2050 could result in losses reaching 1 trillion dollars (880 billion euros) annually in the largest coastal cities.
Higher water levels threaten entire ecosystems
The most vulnerable areas are coastal regions and islands, which could be partially or completely submerged. Millions living in coastal areas may be forced to leave their homes. This process will contribute to mass migrations and social tensions. Rising sea levels will not spare infrastructure and the economy. It will also affect the availability of drinking water and food.
The natural environment will also suffer as wetlands, river deltas, mangrove forests, and habitats of many species will be inundated, leading to their disappearance. Changes in salinity in coastal waters will disrupt the balance of marine ecosystems and negatively impact fishing, which is the livelihood for millions. In the long term, sea-level rise will be one of the most destructive consequences of climate change, leading to permanent geographical and ecological transformations.
Currently, about 230 million people live within 1 metre of sea level, and over a billion within 10 metres. The rise in sea levels is driven by the melting of glaciers and the expansion of warming oceans, which absorb more than 90% of the excess heat associated with climate change.
The latest forecasts for glacier behaviour indicate that to slow sea-level rise, it is necessary to reduce temperatures to around 1°C. Satellite data shows that glaciers are more sensitive to climate changes than previously thought.
Systemic changes are needed
To avoid the catastrophic effects of rising sea levels, actions are necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and implement protective measures. Scientists stress that only decisive actions can prevent the worst-case scenarios, and activists emphasise the importance of systemic changes that shape the future.
Analysis of historical data shows that in periods with similar temperatures and CO2 levels, sea levels were significantly higher than they are today. For example, 125,000 years ago, sea levels were 2 to 9 metres higher, despite lower temperatures and less CO2 in the atmosphere.
