Trump's mixed signals: Soft diplomacy towards Putin amid Kyiv crisis
After Donald Trump rebuked Vladimir Putin, some might have thought that the American president was taking a tougher stance against Russia. Nothing could be further from the truth. A few hours later, he praised the Kremlin for negotiations. Experts suggest that Trump is handling Putin delicately as he believes he may benefit more from a stronger player than from Ukraine.
On Thursday, Donald Trump responded to the Russian night-time attack on the Ukrainian capital. The US President directly addressed Vladimir Putin. "I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Lets get the Peace Deal DONE!" the US President wrote on the Truth Social platform.
Shortly after, when asked by a journalist if he believed the Russian president would heed his call to stop bombing Ukraine, he answered affirmatively.
The American president emphasized that significant pressure is being applied on Russia, suggesting that without it, Moscow would not be engaging in dialogue. He mentioned that Russia has proposed major concessions, which, according to him, include halting the invasion and refraining from taking over the entire country. He described this as a substantial concession.
As Maciej Milczanowski, a professor and deputy director of the Institute of Political Science at the University of Rzeszów, reminds us, the occupation of all of Ukraine was Russia's position in negotiations with Trump.
"Putin might have said something he hadn't planned before because Trump narrowed his negotiating position by agreeing to basic issues from the start. In contrast, Russia escalated its demands. And currently, the point of intersection is in a completely different place," said Prof. Milczanowski in an interview with WP.
Putin's wishlist and Trump's "soft" play
According to the expert from the University of Rzeszów, these are not peace talks but Putin's wishlist.
According to Prof. Milczanowski, in the case of Russia, Trump is playing "softly" because he aims to achieve something different than, for example, in the case of the trade war declared by the White House.
"In this case, Ukraine is a negotiating argument, and the game is about world control. And here Trump thinks he is outplaying Putin. The American president conducts media policy believing it is a multi-level game. He will continue to contradict himself. At times, he will praise Russia, at others, he will criticise it. The same with Ukraine. No specialists are needed to see the shallow and weak game Trump is playing. It's not a multi-level strategy, even though it appears so in his mind," said Prof. Milczanowski.
And as he emphasises, Trump sees himself as a great negotiator.
"There's a lot of deceit, hypocrisy, and slogans aimed at the public. They resonate with the group of American voters who don't understand much and aren't interested in politics. And such a phrase: 'Russia could have taken all of Ukraine, but it let go' falls on fertile ground. Then this group thinks: 'That ungrateful Ukraine doesn't want to agree to a fair peace'," claims the expert.
From business world to politics
Meanwhile, according to the Americanist from the Academy of Economics and Humanities in Warsaw, Prof. Tomasz Pludowski, Trump's submissiveness towards Russia is nothing new.
"The reception of this may be shocking, but it has been talked about since Helsinki, when he stood next to Putin and behaved meekly towards the Russian leader (in July 2018 in Helsinki, there was the first longer bilateral meeting of the presidents of the USA and Russia - editor's note). His body language and statements pointed to it. Various conspiracy theories emerged then, suggesting he might even be a Soviet agent, and that Russian services have compromising materials on Trump from when he visited the Soviet Union in the 1980s," said Prof. Pludowski to WP.
According to the Americanist, when the stakes are high, Trump sides with Russia.
"The American president brings principles from the business world into politics. It's known that Russia is more of a global player than Ukraine. And in negotiations, he adopts a strategy not tied to the world order based on international institutions or ethical principles that defend the weaker against the stronger or the victim against the aggressor. He applies the principle of having a stronger player on his side. While simultaneously limiting his own costs," commented Prof. Pludowski.
"Trump will lose more than he gains"
And as the Americanist adds, Trump wants Russia on his side for future games.
"But there are no guarantees that Putin will behave predictably, e.g., in dealings with China. With his approach, Trump sacrificed Ukraine, worsened transatlantic relations, and offended his allies. He will lose more than he gains. And additionally lose a bargaining chip: 'moral soft power'," assesses the expert.
According to Prof. Pludowski, there's no reason to expect Trump to change his attitude. "If he changes, it will only be when he thinks it benefits him," concludes our interlocutor.
"Crimea came under Russian control"
In a Friday interview with "Time" magazine, Trump again blamed Kyiv for starting the full-scale war with Russia, citing Ukraine’s desire to join NATO as the reason. He added that Crimea will remain with Russia.
The US President asserted that Crimea came under Russian control during Barack Obama's administration, not his own. He emphasized that Russia had long maintained a presence in Crimea, including submarines and a largely Russian-speaking population. He insisted that if he had been president at the time, Crimea would not have been taken, stating that the situation unfolded due to decisions made under Obama’s leadership, not his.
