France steps up: Filling the intelligence gap for Ukraine

On March 3, an Ariane 6 rocket was launched from the Guiana Space Centre. Europe's hope for a return to the space race did not disappoint this time—the launch vehicle completed its task without any issues. During its first commercial flight, Ariane 6 placed a 3,500-kilogram payload in the form of the French CSO-3 spy satellite into orbit.

This satellite, which provides image reconnaissance of the Earth's surface, joined its two predecessors—satellites CSO-1 and CSO-2. The French constellation was developed as part of the international MUSIS (Multinational Space-based Imaging System) program, although the project, equipment execution, and oversight of the entire mission were all French-led.

The French agency DGA (Direction Générale de l’Armement) is responsible for the MUSIS program, contracting the technical matters to the French national space agency CNES (Centre National d'Études Spatiales).

France, which hosts the headquarters of the international company Arianespace, also manufactures space launch vehicles and possesses its own spaceport in French Guiana, excellently situated near the Earth's equator.

As a result, Paris has strong assets: in terms of strategic space reconnaissance, it is completely independent, controlling both the design and construction process of spy equipment, as well as its transportation and deployment into space.

This significantly supplements other key capabilities related to Paris's strategic sovereignty, including control of its own nuclear arsenal. This arsenal includes ASMP cruise missiles and M51 ballistic missiles, both developed and built in France. In contrast, the United Kingdom has relied on American Trident missiles for its nuclear deterrence.

The effects of Donald Trump's decision to cut off Ukraine from American intelligence data are undoubtedly severe. This action not only signifies an embargo on data collected by the Pentagon but also includes information shared by the United Kingdom.

This is a result of the informal alliance known as the "Five Eyes", which links Anglo-Saxon countries that were once British colonies. The community includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

Moreover, Trump did not restrict himself to cutting Ukraine off from military-collected data. Under his directive, Kyiv also lost access to commercial satellite images offered by the American company Maxar Technologies.

It's a precise and painful blow. Although Ukraine currently excels in tactical reconnaissance using various drones, surpassing even the United States, its ability to conduct reconnaissance at a higher, strategic level is limited.

The size of the American constellation is crucial in this case. NATO has a total of about 300 satellites with different purposes and capabilities. Out of this number, approximately 250 are American satellites. A large number of orbital "spies" helps ensure frequent visits to different parts of the world.

The more satellites there are, the more frequent the visits, and the more up-to-date the data. While this is less critical for static targets like ports or airports, it becomes vitally important for mobile targets, such as a transport arriving at a train station, an air defense system taking position, or a ship docking at a port. Or the cruiser Moscow entering—its doom—the range of missiles launched from the Ukrainian coast.

Apart from the 250 American satellites, the rest of NATO controls about 50, of which 15 are French satellites. Alongside the three CSO optical reconnaissance satellites, there are also three CERES satellites responsible for electronic intelligence. Ukraine also has constant access to data obtained by commercial satellites owned by companies outside the USA, such as the ICEYE constellation.

In addition to data obtained through space reconnaissance, information gathered at a lower level—including through early warning aircraft—is also valuable.

France has four E-3 Sentry aircraft, operating independently of the 14 NATO AWACS. Paris is also building capabilities in aerial electronic reconnaissance, having ordered SIGINT aircraft constructed using the French Dassault Falcon 8X aircraft.

Although French capabilities are much more modest than American ones in terms of the number of satellites or aircraft, France has maintained complete sovereignty in conducting reconnaissance. It not only operates appropriate equipment but also controls its design, construction, and deployment into service.

As a result, Paris can freely use the obtained data and—if deemed necessary—share it with its partners independently of the US president's decisions. For Ukraine, this is very good news.