Rethinking military power: Challenges and myths exposed
For over three years, the war in Ukraine has prompted analysts to reassess the true military potential of Russia. Some experts believe that for a long time, we lived under the illusion of the power and invincibility of the Russian army, which proved to be a myth. In this context, an analysis by Mark Gunzinger, a former colonel of the United States Air Force, who a few years ago assessed the capabilities of the U.S. and its allies in a potential conflict with Russia and China, becomes interesting. His opinion, which we recall, was not very optimistic at the time.
Mark Gunzinger, a retired colonel of the United States Air Force, presented an analysis in his 2021 article published on the portal Defence News regarding the potential chances of the U.S. in a conflict with Russia and China. His conclusions were alarming at the time, emphasizing the need for changes in American defense strategy. The question arises whether the United States has modified its approach since then and is moving towards modernizing its armed forces, as Gunzinger suggested.
Technology matters
It is worth remembering that Gunzinger criticized the strategy of the U.S. Department of Defense, which assumed a reduction in army size while expecting new technologies to increase its effectiveness. Gunzinger believed that such a policy does not guarantee sufficient capabilities to defend the country and prevent nuclear attacks.
The former military officer noted that to effectively counteract potential aggression from China on Taiwan or Russia on the Baltic countries, the United States must have forces capable of a quick offensive. According to him, only air forces, such as bombers and fifth-generation fighters, can react quickly enough.
Gunzinger pointed out that since the Cold War, about 66% of the United States Air Force's bombers have been withdrawn from use, and the size of fighter forces is significantly smaller than in 1991. In his analysis, the retired military officer indicated that if the United States fails to prevent China from invading Taiwan, they may lose their dominant military position in the Western Pacific.
New challenges, old problems
Similarly, a successful invasion of the Baltic states by Russia could weaken NATO, which, according to the retired American colonel, is one of Vladimir Putin's long-term goals. Gunzinger suggested that the United States should focus on developing long-range bombers, fifth-generation fighters, and increasing the number of precision missiles.
It is worth noting that Gunzinger's opinion on the importance of bombers in modern military conflicts remained unchanged even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the end of 2023, he referred to a report indicating that the United States will be able to acquire only about 10 modern B-21 bombers annually starting from the 2030s. Gunzinger believed that such a small number of advanced B-21 bombers would likely not significantly impact offensive or defensive operations against China or any other major U.S. adversary.
The retired military officer stated in 2023 that American bomber and fighter aviation will reach a new low this decade before increasing its size. He also noted that at the same time, the threat of aggression on Taiwan or the South China Sea is peaking. Gunzinger commented that he believes it doesn't make sense from the perspective of deterrence, risk management, or warfare.
Gunzinger believed that it is crucial to revise planning assumptions and increase combat capabilities to quickly suppress potential invasions. Only such actions can secure the United States from losing its military position.
Despite existing problems, in expert analyses regarding a potential direct clash between NATO and Russia, it is always emphasized that the Alliance surpasses Putin's army in many respects. The graphic below illustrates this well, although it does not include resources that Sweden has contributed to NATO.
