Ukrainian offensive in Kursk disrupts Russian strategy for Donbas

Since 6 August, the Ukrainian military has operated in the Kursk region. It has been a significant blow to Russia—militarily and in terms of image. Vladimir Putin is pulling units from all over the country into the Kursk area. So far, however, he has not pushed the Ukrainians out of the region. Journalists at "The New York Times" believe the dictator has a different plan.

According to "The New York Times," it is more important for the Russians to capture Pokrovsk than to defend the Kursk region against the Ukrainian attack. This is according to experts analysing the current front-line situation.

Although the offensive in the Kursk region took Russia by surprise, it is more invested in capturing Pokrovsk, which is a key logistics hub in Donbas in eastern Ukraine, and its leaders do not want to move soldiers from this front - "NYT" cites experts and Western politicians.

Col. Marco Reisner from the main Austrian military academy believes that the goal of the Russian offensive is "at least to capture Pokrovsk." That is why there is no sign of Russians moving their forces from Donbas towards Kursk. They are advancing in Ukraine and doing everything possible to capture the next city.

Experts point out that the Russians' initial problems in the Kursk direction were due, among other things, to chaos regarding responsibility for pushing out the Ukrainians. It was unclear who was supposed to direct the region's defence, allowing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to achieve significant progress quickly. Currently, the Federal Security Service directs the response, not the general staff of the Russian army.

In the absence of clear command, Russian forces show less initiative and are rather defensive, allowing Ukrainians to move forward - said Ralph F. Goff, a senior CIA official who once served in Eastern Europe, in an interview with "The New York Times."

Experts also say that the Ukrainian offensive is beginning to slow down. Russia has deployed 30,000 soldiers in the Kursk region, primarily reserves and forces from the southern and northeastern parts of Ukraine. The newspaper indicates that this was enough to halt the progress of Ukrainian troops. According to "NYT" sources, 50,000 soldiers are needed to fully push them back.

According to the aforementioned Reisner, Moscow calculates that it is not worth moving enough troops to fully repel the Ukrainian offensive from "territory of little tactical significance," especially since maintaining the occupied areas forces Ukraine to keep its own forces there.

If the Russians threw all their forces into the Kursk region, they would be playing the Ukrainian game - said Russian diplomat Nikolai Sokolov, who works at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation.

According to "NYT" there is a likelihood that the Ukrainians will decide on another offensive that will surprise the Russians. For now, they have already managed to take control of part of the Kursk region. - So far we have taken control of 1,300 square kilometres of territory. There are 100 localities on it - said recently the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi.