Israel and Iran on the brink: Rising tensions and looming conflict

The situation in the Middle East escalated after Israel killed the political leader of Hamas. The assassination took place in Tehran, where Ismail Haniyeh was visiting for the inauguration of the new Iranian president. Washington and Tel Aviv are preparing to retaliate against Iran.

The United States and Tel Aviv believe that Iran will strike Israeli territory during the night of August 4 to 5 (Sunday to Monday) - reports Barak Ravid, a journalist from Axios known for his reliability and verified sources.

Retaliation from Tehran will not come as a surprise, as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has officially announced it, resulting in, among other things, a rise in oil prices. The only uncertainty for the public is the timing and scale.

American officials claim that the attack will be similar to the missile retaliation from April this year. However, it is possible that this time the scope of the operation will be larger if Lebanese Hezbollah gets involved. This is likely since, in recent days, Israel also killed one of the commanders of this Iran-supported organisation.

Concern in the Middle East is growing, as reported by a PAP correspondent in Jerusalem. "There are increased fears that the expected strike will deepen tensions and could lead to the outbreak of open war on another front of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran and its allies," writes Jerzy Adamiak.

Further escalation in the region is one of the worst prospects for oil consumers, but also for international trade. Above all, it is disastrous for the sides of the potential conflict.

American experts Daniel Byman and Seth G. Jones, in their analysis for *Foreign Policy*, highlighted that a potential conflict between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah would have devastating consequences for both parties. They pointed out that Hezbollah, backed by Iran, possesses a large stockpile of weapons and seasoned fighters. On the other hand, Israel, which has long been preparing for such a scenario and has substantial military power, could inflict heavy damage on Lebanon.

They cautioned that despite the severe consequences of open war, it remains a possibility. Managing violence is challenging, and retaliatory actions can lead to a perilous cycle, escalating the conflict.