Putin's call for BRICS peace mediation faces skepticism

Putin stated that China, India, and Brazil could mediate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. According to former Polish ambassador to Moscow, Włodzimierz Marciniak, the plan might not succeed. The diplomat believes that these countries are unlikely to want to be puppets in the hands of the Russian dictator. However, their participation is not excluded.

Vladimir Putin’s words were spoken during an economic forum in Vladivostok. According to him, the basis of the peace talks could be a preliminary agreement between Russia and Ukraine reached in Istanbul in the first weeks of the war in 2022, which was never realised.

In March 2022, negotiators in Istanbul issued a statement according to which Ukraine would become a neutral state with limited armed forces, and its security would be guaranteed by Russia and Western countries, including the USA and the United Kingdom.

Putin also pointed out the countries that, according to him, could be mediators during potential talks.

- We respect our friends and partners who, I think, are genuinely interested in resolving all issues related to this conflict. These are primarily the People's Republic of China, Brazil, and India. I’m in constant contact with our partners on this matter. I have no doubt that the leaders of these countries, with whom we share trust, sincerely strive to help clarify all the details of this complex process - said Putin.

According to former Polish Ambassador to Moscow Włodzimierz Marciniak, Putin's words are not surprising.

- This is Russia's consistent position; they are always ready for peace talks on their terms, at any time ready to impose peace on Ukraine. And the terms are unchanged: regime change, what they mean by the codename "denazification," and also the disarmament of Ukraine. On these terms, they are indeed ready to begin talks immediately - commented Włodzimierz Marciniak in an interview with WP.

The former Polish ambassador to Moscow emphasises that it is obvious that if Ukraine agreed to such terms, it would become completely dependent on Russia: - The authorities in Kiev would essentially be appointed by Moscow, and at the same time, Ukraine would have such weak armed forces that it wouldn't be able to defend itself against another "special military operation," because these are Russia's constant and unchanging goals.

- These are unacceptable conditions. In reality, this means that Putin wants to continue the war - summarises Włodzimierz Marciniak.

However, another former Polish diplomat, Jerzy Marek Nowakowski, notes that "the words peace and negotiations with Ukraine are appearing more and more often in Russian rhetoric."

- They no longer say they won’t talk to the "fascist regime of Zelensky," so it seems that Russia, like Ukraine, is getting somewhat war-weary and is trying to at least freeze and exit this conflict - believes Nowakowski, former Polish ambassador to Latvia and Armenia.

This pertains to the situation in the Russian Kursk region. On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced that Russia had already lost 7000 wounded and killed soldiers there. Although officially, Putin claims that Russian forces are starting to drive out Ukrainian soldiers from there.

- As for the negotiators, it’s an attempt to draw the BRICS countries back to Russia because - especially in the case of India and Brazil - these countries are becoming increasingly sceptical about supporting the Russians. This is an attempt to incorporate them into the negotiating process in a style dictated by Russia - believes Jerzy Marek Nowakowski.

At the same time, he admits that Putin wants to find negotiators who are relatively favourable to Russia. - In reality, it's indicating countries with superpower ambitions, alongside the United States. So Putin is promoting the propaganda of a multipolar world, which is a Chinese and Russian dream - adds Nowakowski.

But according to Włodzimierz Marciniak, there is no certainty that the mentioned countries would want to participate in negotiations on the terms likely expected by Russia.

- These countries are indeed trying to gain as much benefit as possible from the international crisis caused by Russia's aggression against Ukraine. But they do not necessarily want to play a preassigned role in the Moscow scenario. Perhaps they could play some independent role. By taking advantage of this situation, they would probably do it. But I doubt they’d want to do it under Moscow's dictate because that's what Putin has in mind - concludes the former Polish ambassador to Russia.