Russia's African Corps may replace Wagner fighters in Mali

"Russians may withdraw some of their troops from the Kharkiv region," reports the Institute for the Study of War in its latest analysis. The reason is the massacre of members of the Wagner Group in Mali, where 50 fighters along with their commander were eliminated.

"Russian fighters from the Wagner Group in Mali have recently suffered colossal losses, and now the Kremlin will need a large-scale replacement of soldiers in Africa with soldiers from the Russian Federation's African Corps. Part of this corps was recently transferred to the Kharkiv region to support the enemy offensive," notes the Unian agency.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, several Russian war bloggers claim that "the Ministry of Defence is outraged by the loss of fighters." "There is a possibility that the military command will use this to prevent the deployment of Wagnerites in the Sahel region and completely replace them with the African Corps of the Ministry of Defence," we read.

Bloggers referred to an anonymous source in the administration of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, which confirmed such changes. In addition, troops will be sent to the entire "Sahel trio" (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger) to replace the fighters.

Analysts estimate that the African Corps currently likely cannot properly replace the Wagner Group, especially in Mali. "The reason may be that part of the corps was transferred to the Kharkiv region and therefore can be withdrawn from Ukraine," they emphasised.

"Replacing the Wagnerites on a large scale after losses such as those suffered in the recent ambush will likely result in the transfer of part of the African Corps fighters to Mali, away from the front lines in Ukraine, and the Russian military command is unlikely to consider a complete replacement of the Wagnerites in Mali," analysts believe.

Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) confirmed on Monday that it is engaging in activities in Africa against Russian mercenaries from the former Wagner Group. "More to come," announced HUR representative Andriy Yusov, referring to the recent Tuareg attack on Wagnerites in Mali.

According to Yusov, Tuareg rebels fighting against the Malian army and Russian mercenaries received necessary information from the Ukrainian side, allowing them to operate successfully against the Russians. "Certainly, we will not discuss the details at this time, but we will continue these activities," the HUR representative declared.

On Saturday, Reuters, referring to a communication from the CSP-PSD rebel movement, reported that Malian fighters from the Tuareg ethnic group had killed and wounded dozens of Malian army soldiers, as well as Russian mercenaries from the former Wagner Group during fighting near the border with Algeria.

The Continuous Strategic Framework for Peace, Security, and Development (CSP-PSD) rebel movement reported on Saturday that it had captured armoured vehicles, trucks, and tankers during fighting in the area of the town of Tinzaouaten near the border. The group also reported that it damaged a helicopter, which later crashed in the town of Kidal, several hundred miles away. The clashes were said to have occurred on Thursday and Friday.

Africa is one of the "traditional" areas of activity for the Wagner Group - the Kremlin-linked Russian mercenary formation notorious and responsible for numerous crimes. Since 2022, the beginning of Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine, Wagnerites have been fighting in that country. Still, after the so-called rebellion initiated in June 2023 by the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and his subsequent death (he died two months later in a plane crash), this formation was officially dissolved. Most mercenaries were said to have relocated to Africa.