S‑500 Prometheus: Revolution or another Russian military dud?

The Russians present the anti-ballistic and anti-aircraft system S-500 Prometheus as a super-modern weapon with enormous destruction capabilities. However, reports from Ukraine suggest the opposite—that the S-500 might turn out to be another one of Putin's military duds.

Russian arms fairs (International Military-Technical Forum) Army-2024 are increasingly intended for domestic use. Although Russia's position as a global arms exporter is still strong, it is weakening year by year due to sanctions and choices made by potential customers.

During this year's event, the Russian arms sector publicly showcased – for the first time – the new anti-ballistic and anti-aircraft system S-500 Prometheus (Prometheus), also known as Triumfator-M.

The technical data and possibilities of the new weapon provided by the Russians sound impressive, placing the S-500 in the same league as global leaders like the Israeli Arrow-3 system or the American THAAD.

The question of whether Russian claims match the actual capabilities remains unresolved for now. Past experiences suggest that these claims should be taken with a grain of caution: the war in Ukraine has proven that many models of "Putin's superweapons" do not live up to Russian expectations.

The S-500 Prometheus is the work of the Almaz-Antey Corporation, which specialises in missile weapons. Although the Russians announced the completion of design work in 2011, the start of serial production of the new weapon keeps being postponed—initially to 2014, then 2017, and 2021. According to current promises, mass production of the system is set to start in 2025.

The system's capabilities were partially confirmed in 2018 when a target over 480 kilometres away was intercepted during a test. In 2021, the first S-500 battery began service in the Moscow region, strengthening the anti-ballistic shield protecting the Russian capital.

According to the Russians, the S-500 is supposed to combat aerial targets at up to 500 kilometres, hypersonic targets, and ballistic missiles. The latter is supposed to be intercepted not only in the atmosphere, in the terminal phase of their flight, but also earlier – still in space, at an altitude of even 200 kilometres.

This means that the S-500 also has limited anti-satellite capabilities and can destroy targets located in the lowest orbits. Therefore, it is an intermediate link between the S-400 anti-aircraft system and the A-235 Nudol anti-ballistic and anti-satellite system.

Due to the different characteristics of targets, the system has been equipped with three types of effectors – 40N6M missiles for combating aerial targets, and 77N6/77N6-N1 missiles designed to destroy ballistic missiles.

The Russians' declaration that the S-500 has capabilities—including the ability to destroy F-35 or F-22 aircraft—means that it is comparable to the Western top systems. This top tier includes the Israeli Arrow-3 system, chosen among others by Germany and promoted as the top layer of the European Anti-Missile Shield. The second system with similar capabilities is the American THAAD.

In both cases, these systems are designed to defend areas rather than points (e.g., THAAD can defend an area 150 times larger than the Patriot system), and such a role is envisioned for the S-500.

In the future, the sea version of the S-500 was supposed to be deployed on new Russian destroyers Lider project 23560, in this case functioning as an equivalent to the American NTW (Navy Theatre Wide, currently NTW-THAAD) system with RIM-161 Standard Missile 3 missiles. However, work on new destroyers has been suspended in Russia.

It should be emphasised that – contrary to information provided by some media – the S-500 is not a successor to the S-400. It is a system with different characteristics and capabilities and is intended to serve in parallel with the S-400, complementing it.

For this reason, the probable movement of unknown system elements to Ukraine by the Russians, reported on 23 April 2024 by the then-Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu, caused significant interest. The Russian announcements were confirmed in June by the head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate, Gen. Kyrylo Budanov.

The S-500 was supposed to support the S-300 and S-400 systems destroyed by Ukrainians while also providing cover for the Kerch Bridge. Although its importance drastically diminished following the Russians' construction of a coastal railway, the bridge still plays an important propaganda role.

Given the system's range, Ukraine seemed like a good place for relatively safe testing of Prometheus under combat conditions, but the realities of war quickly invalidated these assumptions.

As early as 28 June, Ukrainian sources, referring to American satellite reconnaissance, reported a hit by an MGM-140 ATACMS missile on an element of the S-500 system, most likely one of the radars. Slightly earlier, ATACMS missiles hit the satellite communications and space tracking complex NIP-16 in Vitino, located within the probable responsibility area of the S-500.

If confirmed over time, both cases put the value of the S-500 in question. Similar to the S-300 and S-400, the latest "military diamond" of Russia, in light of these reports, appears to be a weapon whose capabilities have been exaggerated by Russian propaganda, and Prometheus is unable to protect both the area being defended and itself, thereby joining the long list of "Putin's parade equipment."

Until the system is used on a larger scale and this is reliably documented, reports on the new weapon's effectiveness and ineffectiveness will be based on – having conflicting goals – Moscow's and Kyiv's propaganda.