Ukraine strikes Kursk, but Donbas reserves remain as fighting intensifies

Ukraine successfully struck the Kursk region, completely surprising the Kremlin. If the goal of the attack was to force the Russians to transfer reserves from Donbas, it has not been achieved yet. Putin's forces left the reserves to continue the offensive in eastern Ukraine. They had no other choice.

The heaviest fighting is taking place around Toretsk and Pokrovske. More than half of the combat engagements between the two armies occur near these two cities. On the Toretsk sector, the Russians are focusing on attacks on urban-type settlements New York (Novhorodske), Nelipivka, and Zalizne. From the direction of New York, they are trying to advance towards Nelipivka along the eastern bank of the Kruty Toretsk river.

The most intense clashes, however, are occurring around Pokrovske, a city of about 60,000 people. The Russians managed to approach its outskirts within a few kilometres. On this 19-kilometre-wide sector, they have gathered around 40,000 people and are focusing primarily on reaching the urban settlement of Novohrodivka.

They have also repeatedly tried to strike at Selydove, but were countered from the west and south, forcing them to retreat to Persha. The Ukrainians also struck north of the Kruty Yar, pushing the Russians back.

However, things are not as rosy as they might seem at first glance. Across the entire front, the Russians have advanced about 10 kilometres. Overall, the Ukrainians are in a difficult situation, with the frontlines straining. Urgent rotations of exhausted units and the creation of deeper personnel reserves are needed.

On the night of 20 August, Russian forces shelled Pokrovske, destroying civilian structures. The next day, artillery shelled Kostiantynivka, where they destroyed not only several residential blocks but also administrative buildings and two industrial facilities.

Local authorities are continuously urging residents of the region to agree to evacuate from the threatened areas. Mandatory evacuation applies only to citizens over 70 years old and children.

Although the Russians are making progress, Western intelligence notes that the intensity of Russian military actions in Donbas has somewhat decreased. The daily number of attacks rarely exceeds 80, which was unheard of six months ago.

The situation for the Ukrainians is not easy. One of the few positives is that similar to the situation in Zaporizhzhia and Donbas, the Russians are increasingly rarely using armoured vehicles—tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.

The press officer of the 26th Independent Artillery Brigade, Lt. Oleg Kalashnikov, noted that the Russians had stopped using mechanized components for over a month, meaning they were assaulting with infantry alone. These attacks are preceded by artillery bombardment. It is also notable that Russian strikes occur in waves.

If, for example, there are a dozen attacks on a given day, the Russians suffer significant losses in manpower during these. Then, we can observe that in the following days, the number of strikes drops to five or six. During this period of reduced activity, they try to regroup and prepare new assault units. Once they do, there is another surge in activity—Kalashnikov explained on the brigade's Telegram channel.

The price the aggressor pays for assaults without tanks and infantry fighting vehicles is tremendous. Last week, the Russians lost over 7,500 soldiers – killed, wounded, and captured.

This is a sharp increase. In the second quarter of this year, the Russians were losing 5,000–5,800 soldiers, but monthly. In the report dated 25 May 2024, Ukrainians claimed that since the beginning of the conflict, they had eliminated 505,000 Russians. In just the four months of 2024, the enemy had irrevocably lost about 150,000 people (including 60,000 only since March). The worst month for the aggressor was February, during the fights for Avdiivka and Vuhledar, with an average of 983 killed and wounded per day. As can be seen, these records have now been decisively broken.

Russian losses are caused by poor soldier training. At the training grounds, soldiers were trained in almost comfortable conditions. No one interfered with the deployment, artillery fire was conducted from prepared positions with drone support, and aviation roamed freely over the battlefield. This training process looked excellent in demonstrations for officials but did not work during combat.

We wrote this spring that the Russians would run out of reserves with each passing month. Such a turn of events was inevitable. Ukrainian officers hold similar views.

- I wouldn't connect this with the Kursk operation because a month ago, I said that the Russians do not have the means to conduct effective offensive operations in several directions simultaneously – emphasised in "Jedyni Novini," the press officer of the Tavria Operational Group, Capt. Dmytro Lykhoviy.

Putin missed the moment when he could have decided on a general mobilisation, calmly prepared troops for operations, and introduced fresh units to the front. Those mobilised in the latest draft will be sent to the front without basic refresher training, without proper equipment, and unit cohesion.

This already happened in the autumn of 2022. Soldiers who reached the front in subsequent mobilisation phases openly said that, at best, they had undergone a two-week course, got assigned, and ended up in the trenches. Often with an assignment completely unrelated to the specialisation with which they completed their basic military service.

Growing Russian losses and poorly trained soldiers kept in reserves are likely the reasons why Putin did not decide to transfer significant forces to the Kursk region. If he did, it would be tantamount to the collapse of the Russian offensive in Donbas and would contribute to the rapid degradation of his army.