Kremlin eyes post-war Belarus merger as Lukashenko weighs exit
According to sources close to the presidential administration who spoke with Meduza, the Kremlin authorities may revisit the plan to annex Belarus to Russia once the war in Ukraine concludes. They suggest this process may be marketed as a "deeper integration" between the two countries.
They might take steps to organize elections, run a campaign, and highlight new accomplishments. The reunification of territories that had fragmented during the 1980s and 1990s into a union of republics would be a major development, according to one source. However, the individual emphasized that the success of this scenario hinges entirely on Alexander Lukashenko, who appears determined to maintain his status as a legitimate leader.
Lukashenko ready to transfer power
On the eve of the upcoming presidential elections in Belarus, Lukashenko, who has held the presidency since 1994 and is seeking a seventh term, expressed his readiness to eventually transfer power to a new generation.
- I don’t cling to power, I will do my best to quietly hand it over to new generation. Because I hope that I and you as well will still live under the new government, said the Belarusian leader. However, he added that as long as his health permits, he intends to continue serving in his state position.
Massive fireballs in Russia. Footage from witnesses of Ukraine's attack
In December 2024, Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an agreement on mutual security guarantees. This document outlines the obligations of both parties regarding defence, sovereignty protection, independence, maintaining the constitutional order of both countries and ensuring territorial integrity and the inviolability of the borders of the State Union. The agreement also includes clauses about deploying Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.
"Creeping annexation" of Belarus
Even before the full-scale war in Ukraine began, the Kremlin developed a plan for the "creeping annexation" of Belarus by 2030. This plan outlined the "harmonization" of Russian and Belarusian law, a "coordinated foreign and defense policy," and "trade and economic cooperation" based on Russian interests.
Following the onset of the war in Ukraine, Lukashenko stated that Moscow and Minsk would form a "unity of two independent states" and jointly "overcome sanctions." However, he emphasized that he and Putin "are not foolish enough to act using old methods" to incorporate Belarus into Russia.
