Inside the Kremlin: Ukrainian offensive raises pressure on Putin

Since the beginning of August, the world has been closely monitoring the events at the Ukraine-Russia border. To recap, the armed forces of Ukraine began an offensive operation in Russian territory, including the Kursk region. Former Intelligence Agency officer Robert Cheda discussed the possible consequences, the condition of Russia, and Vladimir Putin himself in an interview with "Fakt".

On 6 August 2024, the Ukrainian armed forces launched an offensive in the Kursk region, taking the fight into Russian territory. The aim of these actions was to regain control over the areas and cause destabilisation within the Russian power structures.

General Oleksandr Syrskyi, chief commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, confirmed that Ukrainian forces have advanced on various front sections, occupying significant areas of Russian territory. Ukraine now controls over 445 square miles and 82 localities. Syrskyi emphasised that the Ukrainian offensive continues, repelling Russian counterattacks.

Meanwhile, frantic discussions are taking place in the Kremlin. The Russian political and business elites are under immense pressure.

According to Robert Cheda, a former Intelligence Agency officer, the Kremlin is facing serious challenges. He points to two key trends currently prevailing in Russian power circles.

The first process is the doubt within the elites regarding whether Putin's policy, the war, is a mistake, as it is increasingly affecting the Russian business elites. The economic growth which the Kremlin speaks of is fictional. As long as Putin pumps streams of money into the budget, it holds together. However, tanks are not edible, just as planes are not. All sectors are experiencing losses except for the armament industry, which itself is inefficient," says former Intelligence Agency officer Robert Cheda in an interview with "Fakt".

The second process the expert highlights is the intensive search for a strategy that would allow Putin to save face in this situation. The Russian president cannot afford to lose the conflict with Ukraine. Therefore, he tries to portray this conflict as part of a larger struggle with the West.

Putin expects a long-term Ukrainian defence but will also want to show a spectacular victory that is not limited to Kursk and the reclaiming of territories. Certainly, there will be attacks in Donbas and subversive actions towards the West and Poland, as we are the closest," he adds.

Cheda also notes that in the Kremlin, scapegoats are being sought, individuals who will be blamed for the current situation. However, given the current tensions, Putin cannot afford the dismissal of his key people, as this could be perceived as a sign of weakness. As a result, we may expect the quiet sidelining of specific individuals from power, which could lead to internal conflicts within the Russian elites.

Putin himself, as Cheda emphasises, is in a situation of immense pressure.

He is paranoically afraid of attacks and conspiracies, so his paranoia in this uncertain situation is increasing. He also has a system that mentally protects him from such situations, otherwise, he would collapse. They take care of him at every moment. It is not out of the question that he might take a week off to show that he is in control of the situation," comments Robert Cheda in an interview with "Fakt".