Russian military suffers record losses in equipment and morale

In Zaporizhzhia, the Russians have stopped using tanks and infantry fighting vehicles—Ukrainian intelligence reports they have been relocated to Donbas, where efforts to break through the front continue.

According to the data available to Ukraine, in June alone, the Russians lost around 420 tanks. This is a record number, as the average from the previous three months — already high — stood at 390 vehicles. This was the result of unsuccessful and repeatedly suicidal attacks.

The situation among the mechanized troops is even more significant! Units equipped with tracked and wheeled infantry fighting vehicles lose nearly 890 vehicles monthly, an increase of 60 per cent compared to last year.

Avdiivka, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar did their part

The problem has grown so much that the Russians have had to concentrate tanks only on critical directions. Those that did not make it to the priority list were almost completely stripped of armoured vehicles. Their harrowing situation is well depicted in videos of attacks carried out by biker squads or Chinese light off-road vehicles, which are aptly compared to golf carts.

A spokesperson for the 14th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard, "Red Kalina," Capt. Mykola Koval said in an appearance on the brigade's online channel that the Russians have been using a new tactic on the Tokmak section of the front for some time.

- The enemy is trying, as much as possible, to use less equipment or not to use it at all, sending several soldiers into the attack – described Koval, adding that this tactic has been observed for several weeks. - They have suffered heavy losses here and probably cannot find new personnel or equipment yet.

Ukrainian intelligence confirmed in a statement that the situation changed after the heavy losses the Russians suffered near Avdiivka, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar. By now transferring equipment to critical sectors, the Russians have fallen into a spiral from which it will be hard to escape.

Increasing losses, declining production

The aggressor's losses are likely to continue to grow. This is a consequence of the situation in which the Russians find themselves. When the war began, the Kremlin had a relatively large number of experienced crews. Over nearly two and a half years of fierce fighting, the best-trained ones have been depleted, and now reservists with a short "refresher course" are being sent to the front.

Naturally, the current level of training of tank crews is deficient. Additionally, untested crews are using equipment far worse than the Russian army started the war with.

Firstly, the Russians lack the Western electronic technologies they were importing. Secondly, most vehicles being sent to the front are machines pulled out from storage, unpreserved, and refurbished. While unpreserved vehicles were in decent technical condition in the second year of the war, now the worst ones are being pulled out. For example, about 925 T-80B and T-80BW tanks have been sent to the front so far, and only about 300 of these machines may remain in storage.

A report by the London International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated that the Russians lost about 9,000 tanks and armoured vehicles in the first two years of the invasion. Therefore, they were forced to resort to archaic T-62, T-54, and T-55 tanks. Even technically, museum-level BTR-50 armoured personnel carriers, which entered the Soviet Army in 1954, have begun to appear on the front lines.

According to Russian reports, the UralVagonZavod tank factory, which produces new T-90M tanks and modernises T-72B3 and T-80BW tanks, can deliver 50 tanks to the front per month. In reality, it is much worse. The French Institut Action Resilience estimated that tank production in Russia does not exceed 390 units annually. That is about 30 vehicles per month. This means that losses are ten times greater than the production capacity of Russian factories.

The production of infantry fighting vehicles is equally dire. Currently, BMP-3 production reaches about 400 units annually. The Russians can reclaim and refurbish about 600 BMP-1 and BMP-2 from storage annually. However, the stocks are not bottomless. According to analyses, they are already 70 per cent empty.

They are weakening but can still wage war

Finally, it has come to what was hoped for by imposing sanctions: the Russians cannot send enough equipment to the front that would technically match that provided to Ukraine by its allies.

Despite being switched to wartime mode, the Russian defence industry is unable to match battle losses. However, the Russians still have such large stockpiles of equipment and human resources that they can wage a prolonged positional war.