Russia's push for victory in Ukraine by 2026 amid rising pressures

According to experts from the American Institute for the Study of War, Russia aims to win the war with Ukraine before 2026. It expects a worsening economic situation and problems recruiting soldiers. These conclusions were drawn after a speech by the head of the Ukrainian military intelligence.

"Russia aims to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine before 2026 before medium- and long-term economic constraints and problems with generating military power significantly reduce Russia's ability to wage war," asserts the American think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). They cite the words of the head of Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR), General Kyrylo Budanov.

The Kremlin believes that 2025 will be a critical year, says Budanov. On 15 September, during the Yalta European Strategy conference, he said that if Russia cannot secure a victory by early 2026, it will undermine its aspirations to be a global superpower for the next 30 years.

Budanov assesses that the Russian authorities expect a worsening economic and socio-political situation by mid-2025, alongside increasing problems with military recruitment. According to ISW, Russia is experiencing issues with voluntary recruitment for the war against Ukraine despite significantly increasing one-time payments of approximately £8,900 for enlisting in the army.

The head of HUR believes that the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region and attacks on targets in Russia are demoralising Russian citizens. According to General Budanov, in this situation, Vladimir Putin will face the choice of announcing a new mobilisation, which would be politically risky or reduce the intensity of war actions.

According to ISW, the Russian dictator is still reluctant to announce another wave of partial mobilisation and will push the defence ministry to continue the current covert mobilisation.

ISW assesses that "it is still unclear whether Putin will decide on another round of mobilisation if he experiences a crisis similar to the Ukrainian offensive (in the Kharkiv region) in autumn 2022."

Russia is likely to encounter increasing challenges in producing and supplying the war material needed for operations in Ukraine. The Kremlin will likely become increasingly dependent on foreign partners to meet its material needs, ISW experts predict.

General Budanov emphasised that the delivery of artillery shells from North Korea has critical significance from Ukraine's perspective. They had a "direct and rapid impact" on the situation on the front. Ukraine "unfortunately cannot do anything about it for now," said the head of HUR, as the Interfax-Ukraine news agency quoted.

When asked about the scale of assistance from Russia's allies (in addition to North Korea, mainly Iran and China), Budanov said that North Korea is first, then "for a long time no one," and then the remaining countries.